MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2026-06-25. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | |
| NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | Philadelphia Phillies | San Diego Padres | |
| AL | New York Yankees | Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | Chicago White Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | Bye | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.9 | 0.0 | 48 | 31 | 47.0 | 36.0 | 95.0 | 67.0 | 102-60 | 88-74 | 98.6% | 11.1% | 87.5% | 35.4% | 72.1% | 34.9% | 15.8% | 9.0% | -0.3% | -1.0% | -0.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.3 | 0.1 | 45 | 36 | 42.1 | 38.9 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 94-68 | 80-82 | 73.3% | 63.4% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 37.4% | 13.9% | 5.2% | 2.4% | +4.2% | +17.8% | +34.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | 0.1 | 0.0 | 42 | 39 | 40.7 | 40.3 | 82.7 | 79.3 | 90-72 | 75-87 | 34.4% | 32.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 15.5% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | -2.3% | +14.5% | +30.5% | ||||||
| 4 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -0.2 | 0.0 | 41 | 41 | 39.5 | 40.5 | 80.5 | 81.5 | 88-74 | 73-89 | 17.8% | 17.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | -6.9% | -20.9% | +2.4% | ||||||
| 5 | New York Mets | NL | E | -0.7 | 0.2 | 34 | 47 | 35.0 | 46.0 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 76-86 | 62-100 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | -1.5% | -0.9% | ||||||
| NL Central | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 1.3 | 0.0 | 49 | 29 | 49.4 | 34.6 | 98.4 | 63.6 | 106-56 | 91-71 | 99.8% | 3.9% | 95.9% | 69.8% | 88.2% | 51.4% | 26.6% | 16.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +1.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.5 | 0.2 | 44 | 37 | 42.2 | 38.8 | 86.2 | 75.8 | 94-68 | 79-83 | 65.7% | 62.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 34.4% | 13.4% | 5.4% | 2.7% | +9.0% | +15.2% | +7.6% | ||||||
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -0.2 | 0.1 | 42 | 36 | 40.1 | 43.9 | 82.1 | 79.9 | 90-72 | 75-87 | 30.5% | 30.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 12.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | -2.1% | -10.4% | +14.3% | ||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | 0.2 | 0.2 | 41 | 40 | 40.2 | 40.8 | 81.2 | 80.8 | 88-74 | 74-88 | 21.7% | 21.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | +2.6% | -12.7% | -17.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.4 | 0.1 | 37 | 42 | 37.2 | 45.8 | 74.2 | 87.8 | 82-80 | 67-95 | 1.4% | 1.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -9.7% | ||||||
| NL West | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.7 | 0.0 | 52 | 29 | 50.1 | 30.9 | 102.1 | 59.9 | 109-53 | 95-67 | >99.9% | 0.4% | 99.6% | 90.9% | 97.0% | 62.8% | 39.0% | 26.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | +0.2% | ||||||
| 2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.2 | 0.1 | 42 | 37 | 41.8 | 41.2 | 83.8 | 78.2 | 91-71 | 76-86 | 42.4% | 42.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 19.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | -1.8% | +13.2% | -22.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | -0.3 | 0.1 | 41 | 39 | 38.6 | 43.4 | 79.6 | 82.4 | 87-75 | 72-90 | 14.1% | 14.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | -1.6% | -11.5% | -39.1% | ||||||
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -0.4 | 0.0 | 33 | 47 | 39.0 | 43.0 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 79-83 | 65-97 | 0.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.4% | -2.5% | -1.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.4 | 0.2 | 32 | 49 | 33.3 | 47.7 | 65.3 | 96.7 | 73-89 | 58-104 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | Bye | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 1.2 | 0.0 | 48 | 32 | 47.7 | 34.3 | 95.7 | 66.3 | 103-59 | 88-74 | 99.9% | 8.9% | 91.0% | 90.3% | 96.6% | 61.2% | 39.7% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | ||||||
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | -0.2 | -0.1 | 45 | 33 | 41.2 | 42.8 | 86.2 | 75.8 | 94-68 | 79-83 | 89.1% | 80.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 47.2% | 21.0% | 7.9% | 2.3% | +4.6% | +0.9% | -7.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.2 | -0.1 | 39 | 42 | 39.7 | 41.3 | 78.7 | 83.3 | 86-76 | 71-91 | 33.2% | 32.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 16.1% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | -3.7% | -17.3% | -14.7% | ||||||
| 4 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | -0.4 | -0.1 | 38 | 44 | 37.9 | 42.1 | 75.9 | 86.1 | 83-79 | 69-93 | 14.6% | 14.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | -1.2% | +5.2% | +8.2% | ||||||
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33 | 46 | 41.9 | 41.1 | 74.9 | 87.1 | 82-80 | 67-95 | 10.6% | 10.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | +3.4% | +4.8% | -10.4% | ||||||
| AL Central | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.4 | -0.3 | 42 | 39 | 44.1 | 36.9 | 86.1 | 75.9 | 93-69 | 79-83 | 89.3% | 21.9% | 67.4% | 44.5% | 69.5% | 36.4% | 16.9% | 6.4% | -2.9% | -3.1% | +0.6% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -0.1 | -0.1 | 41 | 38 | 41.4 | 41.6 | 82.4 | 79.6 | 90-72 | 75-87 | 66.5% | 38.4% | 28.1% | 15.6% | 40.3% | 16.9% | 6.7% | 2.0% | -0.8% | -9.6% | +35.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | -0.5 | 0.0 | 38 | 44 | 37.5 | 42.5 | 75.5 | 86.5 | 83-79 | 68-94 | 13.4% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | +0.5% | +2.0% | -4.8% | ||||||
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -0.2 | 0.0 | 34 | 47 | 39.7 | 41.3 | 73.7 | 88.3 | 81-81 | 66-96 | 6.5% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | -1.7% | +3.2% | +2.4% | ||||||
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -0.3 | -0.1 | 34 | 48 | 39.4 | 40.6 | 73.4 | 88.6 | 81-81 | 66-96 | 5.5% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | -2.3% | +1.0% | -8.4% | ||||||
| AL West | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41 | 41 | 43.7 | 36.3 | 84.7 | 77.3 | 92-70 | 77-85 | 84.5% | 15.8% | 68.7% | 30.3% | 61.5% | 32.1% | 16.3% | 6.6% | -4.6% | -3.6% | +9.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.2 | -0.1 | 39 | 42 | 40.3 | 40.7 | 79.3 | 82.7 | 87-75 | 72-90 | 39.7% | 23.1% | 16.6% | 5.0% | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% | +8.7% | +12.5% | -6.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Houston Astros | AL | W | -0.4 | -0.1 | 40 | 43 | 38.0 | 41.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 85-77 | 71-91 | 29.1% | 19.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 14.5% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | -0.5% | +15.2% | +25.7% | ||||||
| 4 | Athletics | AL | W | -0.8 | -0.1 | 39 | 42 | 37.1 | 43.9 | 76.1 | 85.9 | 84-78 | 69-93 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | +0.0% | -12.1% | -30.5% | ||||||
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -0.7 | 0.0 | 34 | 48 | 36.3 | 43.8 | 70.3 | 91.8 | 78-84 | 63-99 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | +0.5% | +1.1% | +1.3% | ||||||
We're Social...for Statheads
Site Last Updated: Friday, June 26, 4:11AM
Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction?
Subscribe to our Free Email Newsletter
Subscribe to Stathead Baseball: Get your first month FREE
Your All-Access Ticket to the Baseball Reference Database
Do you have a sports website? Or write about sports? We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. Find out more.