MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2025-09-28. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLMilwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersChicago CubsSan Diego PadresCincinnati Reds
ALToronto Blue JaysSeattle MarinersCleveland GuardiansNew York YankeesBoston Red SoxDetroit Tigers
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div Bye LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE1.10.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%100.0%>99.9%61.4%33.0%19.1%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2New York MetsNLE-0.2-0.183790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-27.4%-37.6%-86.7%
3Miami MarlinsNLE-0.1-0.179830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.3%-0.4%
4Atlanta BravesNLE-0.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Washington NationalsNLE-1.60.166960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC1.4-0.197650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%100.0%>99.9%61.7%35.0%21.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Chicago CubsNLC0.3-0.192700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%0.0%46.9%17.7%7.5%3.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC0.1-0.183790.00.083.079.083-7983-79>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%0.0%44.4%16.2%6.7%2.5%+27.4%+51.7%+92.9%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.80.178840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.4%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.10.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.5-0.193690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%0.0%55.6%22.4%8.7%4.4%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2San Diego PadresNLW0.50.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%0.0%53.1%20.6%9.1%4.6%0.0%0.0%+1.2%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.30.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-4.2%
4Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.0-0.180820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-13.6%-1.8%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-2.40.2431190.00.043.0119.043-11943-119<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div Bye LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Toronto Blue JaysALE0.80.194680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%100.0%>99.9%49.1%27.4%13.4%0.0%0.0%+0.3%
2New York YankeesALE0.70.194680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%0.0%46.2%22.4%12.5%5.2%0.0%0.0%+1.6%
3Boston Red SoxALE1.0-0.189730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%0.0%53.8%28.5%15.0%6.8%0.0%+5.2%+2.2%
4Tampa Bay RaysALE0.00.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.4%
5Baltimore OriolesALE0.00.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland GuardiansALC0.00.188740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%0.0%53.7%24.6%10.2%3.8%0.0%+35.1%+94.8%
2Detroit TigersALC-0.30.187750.00.087.075.087-7587-75>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%0.0%46.3%19.8%7.6%2.4%0.0%+17.7%0.0%
3Kansas City RoyalsALC0.20.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-16.9%
4Minnesota TwinsALC-1.20.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago White SoxALC-0.40.1601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Seattle MarinersALW0.7-0.190720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%100.0%>99.9%55.6%27.3%12.5%0.0%0.0%+32.9%
2Houston AstrosALW0.10.187750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-57.9%-85.3%
3Texas RangersALW0.80.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-28.1%
4AthleticsALW0.40.176860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.90.172900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%