MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1971-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | San Francisco Giants | |
| AL | Baltimore Orioles | Oakland Athletics |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | Div | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | E | 0.9 | 0.0 | 97 | 65 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 97.0 | 65.0 | 97-65 | 97-65 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 60.1% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +6.5% | ||||||
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | E | 0.3 | 0.0 | 90 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 90-72 | 90-72 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.0% | ||||||
| 3 | New York Mets | NL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 83 | 79 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 83-79 | 83-79 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 83 | 79 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 83-79 | 83-79 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.5% | ||||||
| 5 | Montreal Expos | NL | E | -0.5 | 0.1 | 71 | 90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 90.0 | 71-90 | 71-90 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | -0.6 | 0.1 | 67 | 95 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 95.0 | 67-95 | 67-95 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 90 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 90-72 | 90-72 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 39.9% | 14.9% | +12.5% | +7.0% | +5.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 89 | 73 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 89-73 | 89-73 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -12.5% | -7.0% | -5.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | NL | W | -0.2 | 0.0 | 82 | 80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 82-80 | 82-80 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | W | 0.3 | 0.0 | 79 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 83.0 | 79-83 | 79-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Houston Astros | NL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 79 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 83.0 | 79-83 | 79-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | -0.6 | 0.1 | 61 | 100 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61.0 | 100.0 | 61-100 | 61-100 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | Div | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 1.1 | 0.0 | 101 | 57 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 101.0 | 57.0 | 101-57 | 101-57 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 57.2% | 33.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Detroit Tigers | AL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 91 | 71 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 91.0 | 71.0 | 91-71 | 91-71 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 85 | 77 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 77.0 | 85-77 | 85-77 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 82 | 80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 82-80 | 82-80 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Washington Senators | AL | E | -0.4 | 63 | 96 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63.0 | 96.0 | 63-96 | 63-96 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
| 6 | Cleveland Indians | AL | E | -1.7 | 0.1 | 60 | 102 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 102.0 | 60-102 | 60-102 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | 0.5 | 0.0 | 101 | 60 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 101.0 | 60.0 | 101-60 | 101-60 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 42.8% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | AL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 85 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 76.0 | 85-76 | 85-76 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Chicago White Sox | AL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 79 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 83.0 | 79-83 | 79-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | California Angels | AL | W | -0.2 | 0.1 | 76 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 76-86 | 76-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Minnesota Twins | AL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 74 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 86.0 | 74-86 | 74-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Milwaukee Brewers | AL | W | -0.3 | 0.0 | 69 | 92 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 92.0 | 69-92 | 69-92 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||


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