MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1971-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLPittsburgh PiratesSan Francisco Giants
ALBaltimore OriolesOakland Athletics
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.90.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%60.1%29.1%0.0%0.0%+6.5%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-6.0%
3New York MetsNLE-0.10.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Chicago CubsNLE0.20.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.5%
5Montreal ExposNLE-0.50.171900.00.071.090.071-9071-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.60.167950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW0.10.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%39.9%14.9%+12.5%+7.0%+5.3%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.40.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-12.5%-7.0%-5.1%
3Atlanta BravesNLW-0.20.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Cincinnati RedsNLW0.30.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5Houston AstrosNLW-0.10.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6San Diego PadresNLW-0.60.1611000.00.061.0100.061-10061-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.10.0101570.00.0101.057.0101-57101-57>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%57.2%33.8%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Detroit TigersALE0.20.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.20.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4New York YankeesALE0.20.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Washington SenatorsALE-0.463960.00.063.096.063-9663-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Cleveland IndiansALE-1.70.1601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.50.0101600.00.0101.060.0101-60101-60>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%42.8%22.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Kansas City RoyalsALW0.10.085760.00.085.076.085-7685-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Chicago White SoxALW0.40.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4California AngelsALW-0.20.176860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALW-0.10.074860.00.074.086.074-8674-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersALW-0.30.069920.00.069.092.069-9269-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%