MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1970-10-01. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLCincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates
ALBaltimore OriolesMinnesota Twins
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.70.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%59.3%26.3%0.0%+18.5%+45.9%
2Chicago CubsNLE0.80.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-9.4%-25.7%
3New York MetsNLE0.30.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-9.1%-19.8%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.40.073880.00.073.088.073-8873-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Montreal ExposNLE-0.10.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Cincinnati RedsNLW0.10.0102600.00.0102.060.0102-60102-60>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%40.7%14.3%0.0%0.0%+1.2%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.10.087740.00.087.074.087-7487-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.2%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW0.40.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Houston AstrosNLW0.00.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Atlanta BravesNLW-0.50.176860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6San Diego PadresNLW-1.00.163990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.5-0.1108540.00.0108.054.0108-54108-54>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%62.2%40.1%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2New York YankeesALE0.40.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.70.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Detroit TigersALE-0.60.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cleveland IndiansALE0.00.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Washington SenatorsALE-0.20.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Minnesota TwinsALW0.50.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%37.8%19.3%0.0%0.0%+11.6%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.30.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.5%
3California AngelsALW-0.30.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-8.0%
4Milwaukee BrewersALW-0.60.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.40.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Chicago White SoxALW-1.20.0561060.00.056.0106.056-10656-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%