MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1969-10-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLNew York MetsAtlanta Braves
ALBaltimore OriolesMinnesota Twins
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE0.80.0100620.00.0100.062.0100-62100-62>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%55.9%26.3%0.0%0.0%+93.7%
2Chicago CubsNLE0.10.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-93.5%
3Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.60.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.50.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.70.163990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Montreal ExposNLE-1.10.1521100.00.052.0110.052-11052-110<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Atlanta BravesNLW0.40.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%44.1%17.2%0.0%+17.9%+96.2%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW0.50.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-17.3%-39.8%
3Cincinnati RedsNLW0.00.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.6%-10.8%
4Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.30.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-42.7%
5Houston AstrosNLW0.40.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.9%
6San Diego PadresNLW-1.70.1521100.00.052.0110.052-11052-110<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.10.0109530.00.0109.053.0109-53109-53>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%51.8%30.1%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Detroit TigersALE0.50.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Boston Red SoxALE-0.10.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Washington SenatorsALE0.60.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5New York YankeesALE-0.20.180810.00.080.081.080-8180-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Cleveland IndiansALE-0.60.162990.00.062.099.062-9962-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Minnesota TwinsALW1.20.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%48.2%26.4%0.0%0.0%+4.1%
2Oakland AthleticsALW-0.20.188740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.1%
3California AngelsALW-0.30.171910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.40.169930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago White SoxALW-0.70.168940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Seattle PilotsALW-0.964980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%