MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1972-10-04. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NL | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | |
| AL | Oakland Athletics | Detroit Tigers |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | Div | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | E | 0.9 | 0.0 | 96 | 59 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 59.0 | 96-59 | 96-59 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 50.7% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | NL | E | 0.5 | 0.0 | 85 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 70.0 | 85-70 | 85-70 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3 | New York Mets | NL | E | -0.6 | 0.0 | 83 | 73 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 73.0 | 83-73 | 83-73 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 75 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 81.0 | 75-81 | 75-81 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Montreal Expos | NL | E | -0.3 | 0.0 | 70 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 86.0 | 70-86 | 70-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | -0.8 | 0.1 | 59 | 97 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59.0 | 97.0 | 59-97 | 59-97 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | W | 0.9 | 0.0 | 95 | 59 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 59.0 | 95-59 | 95-59 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 49.3% | 27.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.2% | ||||||
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 85 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 70.0 | 85-70 | 85-70 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Houston Astros | NL | W | 0.5 | 0.0 | 84 | 69 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 69.0 | 84-69 | 84-69 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | NL | W | -0.7 | 0.0 | 70 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 84.0 | 70-84 | 70-84 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.7 | 0.0 | 69 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 86.0 | 69-86 | 69-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | -1.0 | 0.1 | 58 | 95 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 95.0 | 58-95 | 58-95 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | Div | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Detroit Tigers | AL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 86 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 70.0 | 86-70 | 86-70 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 41.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% | +61.5% | +86.7% | ||||||
| 2 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.6 | 0.0 | 85 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 70.0 | 85-70 | 85-70 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -59.6% | -18.2% | ||||||
| 3 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.5 | 0.0 | 80 | 74 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 74.0 | 80-74 | 80-74 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -1.2% | -44.7% | ||||||
| 4 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.0 | 79 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 76.0 | 79-76 | 79-76 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.7% | -23.8% | ||||||
| 5 | Cleveland Indians | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 72 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 84.0 | 72-84 | 72-84 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Milwaukee Brewers | AL | E | -0.3 | 0.0 | 65 | 91 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 65.0 | 91.0 | 65-91 | 65-91 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | 0.7 | 0.0 | 93 | 62 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 62.0 | 93-62 | 93-62 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 58.8% | 27.9% | 0.0% | +0.2% | +13.7% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | AL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 87 | 67 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 67.0 | 87-67 | 87-67 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.2% | -13.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | AL | W | -0.2 | 0.0 | 77 | 77 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77.0 | 77.0 | 77-77 | 77-77 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Kansas City Royals | AL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 76 | 78 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 78.0 | 76-78 | 76-78 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | California Angels | AL | W | -0.4 | 0.0 | 75 | 80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 80.0 | 75-80 | 75-80 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -1.4 | 0.1 | 54 | 100 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 100.0 | 54-100 | 54-100 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||


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