MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1972-10-04. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
ALOakland AthleticsDetroit Tigers
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.90.096590.00.096.059.096-5996-59>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%50.7%29.1%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Chicago CubsNLE0.50.085700.00.085.070.085-7085-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3New York MetsNLE-0.60.083730.00.083.073.083-7383-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.10.075810.00.075.081.075-8175-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Montreal ExposNLE-0.30.070860.00.070.086.070-8670-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.80.159970.00.059.097.059-9759-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Cincinnati RedsNLW0.90.095590.00.095.059.095-5995-59>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%49.3%27.7%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.10.085700.00.085.070.085-7085-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Houston AstrosNLW0.50.084690.00.084.069.084-6984-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4Atlanta BravesNLW-0.70.070840.00.070.084.070-8470-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Francisco GiantsNLW0.70.069860.00.069.086.069-8669-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6San Diego PadresNLW-1.00.158950.00.058.095.058-9558-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Detroit TigersALE0.20.086700.00.086.070.086-7086-70>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%41.2%15.2%0.0%+61.5%+86.7%
2Boston Red SoxALE0.60.085700.00.085.070.085-7085-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-59.6%-18.2%
3Baltimore OriolesALE0.50.080740.00.080.074.080-7480-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.2%-44.7%
4New York YankeesALE0.30.079760.00.079.076.079-7679-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.7%-23.8%
5Cleveland IndiansALE-0.10.072840.00.072.084.072-8472-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.30.065910.00.065.091.065-9165-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.70.093620.00.093.062.093-6293-62>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%58.8%27.9%0.0%+0.2%+13.7%
2Chicago White SoxALW0.10.087670.00.087.067.087-6787-67<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-13.7%
3Minnesota TwinsALW-0.20.077770.00.077.077.077-7777-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALW0.10.076780.00.076.078.076-7876-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5California AngelsALW-0.40.075800.00.075.080.075-8075-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Texas RangersALW-1.40.1541000.00.054.0100.054-10054-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%