MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1973-10-01. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLCincinnati RedsNew York Mets
ALBaltimore OriolesOakland Athletics
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE0.30.082790.00.082.079.082-7982-79>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%40.8%14.7%0.0%+36.3%+98.1%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.20.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.4%-58.6%
3Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.20.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-33.6%-30.1%
4Montreal ExposNLE-0.20.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.9%-5.7%
5Chicago CubsNLE-0.80.177840.00.077.084.077-8477-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.5%-2.5%
6Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.50.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.2%
NL West
1Cincinnati RedsNLW1.00.099630.00.099.063.099-6399-63>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%59.2%27.6%0.0%0.0%+83.8%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.60.095660.00.095.066.095-6695-66<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-83.3%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW0.20.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
4Houston AstrosNLW-0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Atlanta BravesNLW0.20.076850.00.076.085.076-8576-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6San Diego PadresNLW-1.00.1601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.4-0.197650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%58.2%36.1%0.0%0.0%+3.4%
2Boston Red SoxALE0.80.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.2%
3Detroit TigersALE-0.20.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4New York YankeesALE0.10.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.20.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Cleveland IndiansALE-0.60.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.80.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%41.8%21.6%0.0%0.0%+4.1%
2Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.20.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.1%
3Minnesota TwinsALW0.30.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4California AngelsALW-0.50.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago White SoxALW-0.60.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Texas RangersALW-1.20.0571050.00.057.0105.057-10557-105<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%