MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1974-10-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLLos Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates
ALBaltimore OriolesOakland Athletics
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.80.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%46.8%23.1%0.0%+47.8%+14.1%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.10.086750.00.086.075.086-7586-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-47.8%-12.3%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.30.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.7%
4Montreal ExposNLE0.10.079820.00.079.082.079-8279-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5New York MetsNLE-0.30.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Chicago CubsNLE-1.00.166960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.00.0102600.00.0102.060.0102-60102-60>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%53.2%27.6%0.0%+0.7%+17.1%
2Cincinnati RedsNLW1.00.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.7%-17.0%
3Atlanta BravesNLW0.60.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Houston AstrosNLW0.00.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.50.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6San Diego PadresNLW-1.40.1601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE0.50.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%43.3%19.4%0.0%+34.9%+95.5%
2New York YankeesALE0.50.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-34.9%-28.4%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.10.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-66.2%
4Cleveland IndiansALE-0.50.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.8%
5Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
6Detroit TigersALE-1.00.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.90.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%56.7%29.9%0.0%+0.5%+0.4%
2Texas RangersALW-0.10.084760.00.084.076.084-7684-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.5%-0.1%
3Minnesota TwinsALW0.30.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Chicago White SoxALW-0.10.080800.00.080.080.080-8080-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.20.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
6California AngelsALW-0.30.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%