MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1975-09-28. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NL | Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | |
| AL | Oakland Athletics | Boston Red Sox |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | Div | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | E | 0.9 | 0.0 | 92 | 69 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 92.0 | 69.0 | 92-69 | 92-69 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 45.2% | 22.6% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +23.1% | ||||||
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.3 | 0.0 | 86 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 86-76 | 86-76 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -11.5% | ||||||
| 3 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.1 | 0.0 | 82 | 80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 82-80 | 82-80 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.8% | ||||||
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | E | -0.1 | 0.1 | 82 | 80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 82-80 | 82-80 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -4.8% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago Cubs | NL | E | -0.8 | 0.1 | 75 | 87 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 87.0 | 75-87 | 75-87 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Montreal Expos | NL | E | -0.4 | 0.1 | 75 | 87 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 87.0 | 75-87 | 75-87 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | W | 1.4 | 0.0 | 108 | 54 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 108.0 | 54.0 | 108-54 | 108-54 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 54.8% | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.6 | 0.0 | 88 | 74 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 74.0 | 88-74 | 88-74 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 81.0 | 80-81 | 80-81 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | -0.8 | 0.1 | 71 | 91 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 91.0 | 71-91 | 71-91 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Atlanta Braves | NL | W | -0.9 | 0.1 | 67 | 94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 94.0 | 67-94 | 67-94 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Houston Astros | NL | W | -0.2 | 0.1 | 64 | 97 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.0 | 97.0 | 64-97 | 64-97 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | Div | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.5 | 0.0 | 95 | 65 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 65.0 | 95-65 | 95-65 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 42.1% | 16.9% | 0.0% | +1.6% | +2.6% | ||||||
| 2 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 1.2 | 0.0 | 90 | 69 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 69.0 | 90-69 | 90-69 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -1.6% | -2.5% | ||||||
| 3 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.0 | 83 | 77 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 77.0 | 83-77 | 83-77 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Cleveland Indians | AL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 79 | 80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 80.0 | 79-80 | 79-80 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | AL | E | -0.8 | 0.0 | 68 | 94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 68-94 | 68-94 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Detroit Tigers | AL | E | -1.3 | 0.1 | 57 | 102 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.0 | 102.0 | 57-102 | 57-102 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | 1.1 | 0.0 | 98 | 64 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 98-64 | 98-64 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 57.9% | 29.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +4.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | AL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 91 | 71 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 91.0 | 71.0 | 91-71 | 91-71 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -4.8% | ||||||
| 3 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 79 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 83.0 | 79-83 | 79-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Minnesota Twins | AL | W | -0.2 | 0.0 | 76 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 83.0 | 76-83 | 76-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago White Sox | AL | W | -0.4 | 0.0 | 75 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 86.0 | 75-86 | 75-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | California Angels | AL | W | -1.0 | 0.1 | 72 | 89 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 89.0 | 72-89 | 72-89 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||


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