MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1975-09-28. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLCincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates
ALOakland AthleticsBoston Red Sox
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.90.092690.00.092.069.092-6992-69>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%45.2%22.6%0.0%+0.1%+23.1%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.30.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-11.5%
3New York MetsNLE0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-6.8%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.10.182800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.8%
5Chicago CubsNLE-0.80.175870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Montreal ExposNLE-0.40.175870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Cincinnati RedsNLW1.40.0108540.00.0108.054.0108-54108-54>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%54.8%31.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.60.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW0.00.080810.00.080.081.080-8180-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.80.171910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Atlanta BravesNLW-0.90.167940.00.067.094.067-9467-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Houston AstrosNLW-0.20.164970.00.064.097.064-9764-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE0.50.095650.00.095.065.095-6595-65>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%42.1%16.9%0.0%+1.6%+2.6%
2Baltimore OriolesALE1.20.090690.00.090.069.090-6990-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.6%-2.5%
3New York YankeesALE0.30.083770.00.083.077.083-7783-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Cleveland IndiansALE0.20.079800.00.079.080.079-8079-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.80.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Detroit TigersALE-1.30.1571020.00.057.0102.057-10257-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW1.10.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%57.9%29.2%0.0%0.0%+4.8%
2Kansas City RoyalsALW0.40.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.8%
3Texas RangersALW-0.10.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Minnesota TwinsALW-0.20.076830.00.076.083.076-8376-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago White SoxALW-0.40.075860.00.075.086.075-8675-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6California AngelsALW-1.00.172890.00.072.089.072-8972-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%