MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1976-10-03. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLCincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies
ALNew York YankeesKansas City Royals
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.80.0101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%53.0%29.3%0.0%0.0%+0.6%
2Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.80.09270-1.00.091.070.091-7091-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
3New York MetsNLE0.50.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Chicago CubsNLE-0.50.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.10.072900.0-1.072.089.072-8972-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Montreal ExposNLE-1.30.1551070.00.055.0107.055-10755-107<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Cincinnati RedsNLW0.80.0102600.00.0102.060.0102-60102-60>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%47.0%24.6%0.0%0.0%+1.0%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.50.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.0%
3Houston AstrosNLW0.10.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.20.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Diego PadresNLW-0.90.173890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Atlanta BravesNLW-0.50.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.90.097620.00.097.062.097-6297-62>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%60.7%31.3%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2Baltimore OriolesALE0.30.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.40.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Cleveland IndiansALE-0.30.081780.00.081.078.081-7881-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALE-0.50.074870.00.074.087.074-8774-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.40.066950.00.066.095.066-9566-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Kansas City RoyalsALW0.10.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%39.3%14.8%0.0%+3.3%+7.9%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.80.087740.00.087.074.087-7487-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-3.3%-7.9%
3Minnesota TwinsALW0.60.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4California AngelsALW-0.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Texas RangersALW-0.60.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Chicago White SoxALW-1.10.164970.00.064.097.064-9764-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%