MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1996-09-29. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLAtlanta BravesSan Diego PadresSt. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
ALCleveland IndiansNew York YankeesTexas RangersBaltimore Orioles
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.20.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.5%21.5%9.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Montreal ExposNLE0.20.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-22.7%-24.9%
3Florida MarlinsNLE-0.10.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4New York MetsNLE-0.20.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-1.10.167950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.90.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%57.6%33.9%18.4%0.0%+0.1%+60.4%
2Houston AstrosNLC-0.40.182800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-62.7%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC0.70.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.8%
4Chicago CubsNLC0.30.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.7%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.40.173890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Diego PadresNLW0.30.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%42.4%21.4%9.6%0.0%+16.1%+9.0%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%51.5%23.2%10.7%0.0%+6.7%+37.9%
3Colorado RockiesNLW0.30.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-10.0%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-1.00.168940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.40.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.2%21.9%11.0%0.0%+0.0%+16.7%
2Baltimore OriolesALE0.40.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%42.9%20.9%10.0%0.0%+23.5%+48.5%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.30.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-11.4%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.20.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALE-1.20.1531090.00.053.0109.053-10953-109<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC1.00.099620.00.099.062.099-6299-62>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%57.1%32.7%18.4%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2Chicago White SoxALC0.00.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.6%-36.1%
3Milwaukee BrewersALC-0.30.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Minnesota TwinsALC-0.40.178840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.8%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.10.075860.00.075.086.075-8675-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Texas RangersALW0.60.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%51.8%24.6%12.6%0.0%+8.4%+1.8%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.70.085760.00.085.076.085-7685-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-30.2%-18.8%
3Oakland AthleticsALW-0.10.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4California AngelsALW-1.070910.00.070.091.070-9170-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%