MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1997-09-28. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | Houston Astros | Florida Marlins | |
| AL | Baltimore Orioles | Seattle Mariners | Cleveland Indians | New York Yankees |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 1.1 | 0.0 | 101 | 61 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 101.0 | 61.0 | 101-61 | 101-61 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 53.6% | 33.5% | 19.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Florida Marlins | NL | E | 0.4 | 0.0 | 92 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 92.0 | 70.0 | 92-70 | 92-70 | >99.9% | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | 54.5% | 22.8% | 10.4% | 0.0% | +0.0% | +5.1% | ||||||
| 3 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 88 | 74 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 74.0 | 88-74 | 88-74 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Montreal Expos | NL | E | -0.5 | 0.0 | 78 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 78-84 | 78-84 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | -0.3 | 0.0 | 68 | 94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 68-94 | 68-94 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | NL | C | 0.9 | 0.0 | 84 | 78 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 78.0 | 84-78 | 84-78 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 46.4% | 27.2% | 14.4% | 0.0% | +2.7% | +9.1% | ||||||
| 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.1 | 0.0 | 79 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 83.0 | 79-83 | 79-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -2.7% | -8.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.5 | 0.0 | 76 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 76-86 | 76-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -0.6 | 0.0 | 73 | 89 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 89.0 | 73-89 | 73-89 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.7% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | -0.5 | 0.0 | 68 | 94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 68-94 | 68-94 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 90 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 90-72 | 90-72 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 45.5% | 16.5% | 6.8% | 0.0% | +17.7% | +83.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.9 | 0.0 | 88 | 74 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 74.0 | 88-74 | 88-74 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -17.4% | -86.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 83 | 79 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 83-79 | 83-79 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | -0.7 | 0.0 | 76 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 76-86 | 76-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.0 | 98 | 64 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 98-64 | 98-64 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 48.4% | 19.6% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 1.2 | 0.0 | 96 | 66 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 66.0 | 96-66 | 96-66 | >99.9% | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | 55.6% | 34.8% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Detroit Tigers | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 79 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 83.0 | 79-83 | 79-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.1 | 0.0 | 78 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 78-84 | 78-84 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 76 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 76-86 | 76-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Cleveland Indians | AL | C | 0.4 | 0.0 | 86 | 75 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 75.0 | 86-75 | 86-75 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 51.6% | 21.1% | 9.6% | 0.0% | +0.0% | +18.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -0.4 | 0.0 | 80 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 81.0 | 80-81 | 80-81 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -8.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Milwaukee Brewers | AL | C | -0.6 | 0.0 | 78 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 83.0 | 78-83 | 78-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -9.7% | ||||||
| 4 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | -0.5 | 0.0 | 68 | 94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 68-94 | 68-94 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -0.6 | 0.0 | 67 | 94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 94.0 | 67-94 | 67-94 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.8 | 0.0 | 90 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 90-72 | 90-72 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 44.4% | 24.5% | 12.0% | 0.0% | +0.2% | +39.9% | ||||||
| 2 | Anaheim Angels | AL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 84 | 78 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 78.0 | 84-78 | 84-78 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.2% | -41.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.2 | 0.0 | 77 | 85 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77.0 | 85.0 | 77-85 | 77-85 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -0.9 | 0.0 | 65 | 97 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 65.0 | 97.0 | 65-97 | 65-97 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||


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