MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1997-09-28. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLAtlanta BravesSan Francisco GiantsHouston AstrosFlorida Marlins
ALBaltimore OriolesSeattle MarinersCleveland IndiansNew York Yankees
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.10.0101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.6%33.5%19.1%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Florida MarlinsNLE0.40.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%54.5%22.8%10.4%0.0%+0.0%+5.1%
3New York MetsNLE0.20.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.1%
4Montreal ExposNLE-0.50.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.30.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Houston AstrosNLC0.90.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%46.4%27.2%14.4%0.0%+2.7%+9.1%
2Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.10.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-2.7%-8.4%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.50.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.60.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.7%
5Chicago CubsNLC-0.50.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW0.10.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.5%16.5%6.8%0.0%+17.7%+83.5%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.90.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-17.4%-86.5%
3Colorado RockiesNLW-0.10.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.3%0.0%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.70.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE0.30.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.4%19.6%8.4%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2New York YankeesALE1.20.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%55.6%34.8%19.4%0.0%0.0%+1.1%
3Detroit TigersALE-0.10.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Boston Red SoxALE0.10.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.10.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC0.40.086750.00.086.075.086-7586-75>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%51.6%21.1%9.6%0.0%+0.0%+18.0%
2Chicago White SoxALC-0.40.080810.00.080.081.080-8180-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-8.4%
3Milwaukee BrewersALC-0.60.078830.00.078.083.078-8378-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-9.7%
4Minnesota TwinsALC-0.50.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.60.067940.00.067.094.067-9467-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Seattle MarinersALW0.80.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%44.4%24.5%12.0%0.0%+0.2%+39.9%
2Anaheim AngelsALW0.10.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-41.0%
3Texas RangersALW-0.20.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Oakland AthleticsALW-0.90.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%