MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1995-10-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLAtlanta BravesCincinnati RedsLos Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
ALCleveland IndiansBoston Red SoxSeattle MarinersNew York Yankees
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.60.090540.00.090.054.090-5490-54>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%58.3%31.0%14.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.60.069750.00.069.075.069-7569-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.1%
3New York MetsNLE0.50.069750.00.069.075.069-7569-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Florida MarlinsNLE0.40.067760.00.067.076.067-7667-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Montreal ExposNLE-0.20.066780.00.066.078.066-7866-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.6%
NL Central
1Cincinnati RedsNLC0.7-0.185590.00.085.059.085-5985-59>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%55.0%29.6%13.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Houston AstrosNLC0.50.076680.00.076.068.076-6876-68<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-41.2%-45.2%
3Chicago CubsNLC0.10.073710.00.073.071.073-7173-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-29.2%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.70.062810.00.062.081.062-8162-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.50.058860.00.058.086.058-8658-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.20.078660.00.078.066.078-6678-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.0%21.3%8.6%0.0%+18.3%+57.9%
2Colorado RockiesNLW0.00.077670.00.077.067.077-6777-67>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%41.7%18.1%6.4%0.0%+23.0%+53.0%
3San Diego PadresNLW0.20.070740.00.070.074.070-7470-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-24.6%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-1.10.067770.00.067.077.067-7767-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.3%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE0.50.086580.00.086.058.086-5886-58>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.9%19.6%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2New York YankeesALE0.90.079650.00.079.065.079-6579-65>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%44.1%24.9%14.2%0.0%+30.2%+83.6%
3Baltimore OriolesALE0.70.071730.00.071.073.071-7371-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
4Detroit TigersALE-1.40.160840.00.060.084.060-8460-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Toronto Blue JaysALE-1.00.056880.00.056.088.056-8856-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC1.4-0.1100440.00.0100.044.0100-44100-44>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%55.9%34.6%21.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.60.070740.00.070.074.070-7470-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-18.0%
3Chicago White SoxALC0.30.068760.00.068.076.068-7668-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Milwaukee BrewersALC-0.10.065790.00.065.079.065-7965-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-9.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALC-0.80.056880.00.056.088.056-8856-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Seattle MarinersALW0.60.079660.00.079.066.079-6679-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%51.1%21.0%10.7%+50.2%+9.0%+67.0%
2California AngelsALW0.60.078670.00.078.067.078-6778-67<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-50.2%-38.9%-99.3%
3Texas RangersALW-0.50.074700.00.074.070.074-7074-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.3%-21.0%
4Oakland AthleticsALW-0.70.067770.00.067.077.067-7767-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.5%