MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1994-08-11. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL | Montreal Expos | Cincinnati Reds | Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | |
| AL | New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | Oakland Athletics | Cleveland Indians |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Montreal Expos | NL | E | 1.3 | -0.2 | 74 | 40 | 27.9 | 20.1 | 101.9 | 60.1 | 107-55 | 96-66 | 99.8% | 2.3% | 97.5% | 99.8% | 58.7% | 34.5% | 19.1% | -0.1% | +0.8% | +11.4% | ||||||
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.3 | 0.2 | 68 | 46 | 24.1 | 23.9 | 92.1 | 69.9 | 98-64 | 86-76 | 67.5% | 65.0% | 2.5% | 67.5% | 30.0% | 12.6% | 5.2% | +10.9% | +12.5% | -19.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.1 | -0.1 | 54 | 61 | 23.3 | 22.7 | 77.3 | 83.7 | 83-78 | 72-89 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.0% | -0.3% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 4 | New York Mets | NL | E | -0.3 | 0.0 | 55 | 58 | 22.2 | 24.8 | 77.2 | 82.8 | 83-77 | 72-88 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Florida Marlins | NL | E | -1.0 | 0.1 | 51 | 64 | 19.8 | 26.2 | 70.8 | 90.2 | 76-85 | 65-96 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | NL | C | 0.9 | 0.1 | 66 | 49 | 25.7 | 21.3 | 91.7 | 70.3 | 97-65 | 86-76 | 63.3% | 16.9% | 46.5% | 63.3% | 33.7% | 17.1% | 8.5% | -7.0% | +9.0% | +19.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | 0.8 | 0.1 | 66 | 48 | 25.6 | 21.4 | 91.6 | 69.4 | 97-64 | 86-75 | 69.3% | 15.7% | 53.5% | 69.3% | 36.7% | 18.2% | 9.1% | -3.8% | -21.6% | -10.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.7 | -0.1 | 53 | 61 | 21.4 | 24.6 | 74.4 | 85.6 | 80-80 | 69-91 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -0.9 | 0.0 | 53 | 61 | 20.4 | 25.6 | 73.4 | 86.6 | 79-81 | 68-92 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | -0.2 | -0.1 | 49 | 64 | 22.7 | 24.3 | 71.7 | 88.3 | 77-83 | 66-94 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.3 | -0.1 | 58 | 56 | 25.5 | 22.5 | 83.5 | 78.5 | 89-73 | 78-84 | 78.9% | <0.1% | 78.9% | 78.9% | 32.5% | 14.0% | 5.9% | +4.3% | +10.7% | -4.9% | ||||||
| 2 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.1 | -0.1 | 55 | 60 | 24.4 | 22.6 | 79.4 | 82.6 | 85-77 | 74-88 | 20.2% | <0.1% | 20.2% | 20.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | -3.5% | -7.7% | +13.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -0.6 | 0.3 | 53 | 64 | 19.7 | 24.3 | 72.7 | 88.3 | 78-83 | 67-94 | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -0.9% | -3.1% | -8.5% | ||||||
| 4 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.0 | -0.1 | 47 | 70 | 23.1 | 21.9 | 70.1 | 91.9 | 76-86 | 65-97 | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 1.1 | 0.1 | 70 | 43 | 27.1 | 20.9 | 97.1 | 63.9 | 103-58 | 91-70 | 95.5% | 4.5% | 91.0% | 95.5% | 53.0% | 29.5% | 15.7% | -1.2% | -3.7% | +29.4% | ||||||
| 2 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.8 | 0.1 | 63 | 49 | 25.9 | 21.1 | 88.9 | 70.1 | 94-65 | 83-76 | 33.1% | 24.1% | 9.0% | 33.1% | 16.9% | 8.8% | 4.4% | +3.3% | +21.6% | -22.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.4 | 0.1 | 55 | 60 | 21.9 | 25.1 | 76.9 | 85.1 | 83-79 | 71-91 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | E | -0.1 | -0.1 | 53 | 62 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 76.5 | 85.5 | 82-80 | 71-91 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||||||
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.8 | 0.3 | 54 | 61 | 19.3 | 25.7 | 73.3 | 86.7 | 79-81 | 68-92 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.5% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | 1.0 | -0.2 | 67 | 46 | 27.5 | 20.5 | 94.5 | 66.5 | 100-61 | 89-72 | 83.2% | 27.0% | 56.2% | 83.2% | 48.6% | 25.7% | 14.0% | -0.8% | +0.5% | -8.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Cleveland Indians | AL | C | 1.1 | -0.1 | 66 | 47 | 26.1 | 18.9 | 92.1 | 65.9 | 97-61 | 87-71 | 78.0% | 37.0% | 41.0% | 78.0% | 43.9% | 23.4% | 12.4% | -0.6% | +1.0% | -2.3% | ||||||
| 3 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | 0.2 | 0.0 | 64 | 51 | 23.3 | 22.7 | 87.3 | 73.7 | 93-68 | 82-79 | 10.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 10.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% | -19.3% | +5.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | -0.3 | 0.0 | 53 | 60 | 23.8 | 25.2 | 76.8 | 85.2 | 83-79 | 71-91 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | AL | C | -0.3 | -0.1 | 53 | 62 | 23.1 | 23.9 | 76.1 | 85.9 | 82-80 | 70-92 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -0.3 | -0.1 | 51 | 63 | 23.1 | 24.9 | 74.1 | 87.9 | 80-82 | 68-94 | 38.5% | <0.1% | 38.5% | 38.5% | 13.4% | 4.4% | 1.6% | -7.1% | +18.2% | +13.9% | ||||||
| 2 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.6 | 0.0 | 52 | 62 | 22.1 | 25.9 | 74.1 | 87.9 | 80-82 | 68-94 | 36.1% | <0.1% | 36.1% | 36.1% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | +1.9% | -36.5% | -18.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | -0.5 | -0.1 | 49 | 63 | 22.3 | 24.7 | 71.3 | 87.7 | 77-82 | 66-93 | 23.5% | <0.1% | 23.5% | 23.5% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | +5.0% | +17.3% | +8.3% | ||||||
| 4 | California Angels | AL | W | -1.1 | 0.0 | 47 | 68 | 20.1 | 25.9 | 67.1 | 93.9 | 73-88 | 62-99 | 2.0% | <0.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | +0.2% | +1.0% | -3.8% | ||||||
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