MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1993-10-03. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLAtlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies
ALToronto Blue JaysChicago White Sox
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.30.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%28.4%11.8%0.0%+0.5%+0.5%
2Montreal ExposNLE0.60.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.5%-0.4%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.00.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Chicago CubsNLE0.00.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLE-0.50.175870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Florida MarlinsNLE-1.40.164980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7New York MetsNLE-0.30.0591030.00.059.0103.059-10359-103<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Atlanta BravesNLW1.80.0104580.00.0104.058.0104-58104-58>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%71.6%45.8%+42.8%+18.4%+82.4%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW1.00.0103590.00.0103.059.0103-59103-59<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-42.8%-18.4%-82.4%
3Houston AstrosNLW0.50.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.00.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLW-0.60.173890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Colorado RockiesNLW-0.80.167950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7San Diego PadresNLW-0.60.1611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Toronto Blue JaysALE1.00.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%52.8%23.1%0.0%0.0%+24.8%
2New York YankeesALE0.40.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-19.2%
3Baltimore OriolesALE0.40.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.0%
4Detroit TigersALE-0.40.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5Boston Red SoxALE-0.10.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
6Cleveland IndiansALE0.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.40.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Chicago White SoxALW0.70.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%47.2%19.3%0.0%0.0%+8.0%
2Texas RangersALW0.70.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.1%
3Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.10.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.6%
4Seattle MarinersALW0.00.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5Minnesota TwinsALW-0.70.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6California AngelsALW-0.90.171910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Oakland AthleticsALW-0.70.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%