MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1992-10-04. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NL | Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | |
| AL | Toronto Blue Jays | Oakland Athletics |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | Div | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | E | 0.7 | 0.0 | 96 | 66 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 66.0 | 96-66 | 96-66 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 47.6% | 24.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +36.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Montreal Expos | NL | E | 0.5 | 0.0 | 87 | 75 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 75.0 | 87-75 | 87-75 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -35.6% | ||||||
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | E | 0.4 | 0.0 | 83 | 79 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 83-79 | 83-79 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | NL | E | -0.2 | 0.0 | 78 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 78-84 | 78-84 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.4% | ||||||
| 5 | New York Mets | NL | E | -0.6 | 0.0 | 72 | 90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 72-90 | 72-90 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | -0.3 | 0.0 | 70 | 92 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 92.0 | 70-92 | 70-92 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | W | 0.8 | 0.0 | 98 | 64 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 98-64 | 98-64 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 52.4% | 29.1% | 0.0% | +0.0% | +6.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | W | 0.3 | 0.0 | 90 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 90-72 | 90-72 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -3.8% | ||||||
| 3 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 82 | 80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 82-80 | 82-80 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Houston Astros | NL | W | -0.3 | 0.0 | 81 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 81.0 | 81-81 | 81-81 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -0.6 | 0.0 | 72 | 90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 72-90 | 72-90 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | -0.7 | 0.1 | 63 | 99 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63.0 | 99.0 | 63-99 | 63-99 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | Div | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 0.7 | 0.0 | 96 | 66 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 66.0 | 96-66 | 96-66 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 52.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% | +9.4% | +50.6% | ||||||
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | AL | E | 1.0 | 0.0 | 92 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 92.0 | 70.0 | 92-70 | 92-70 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -9.4% | -11.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 89 | 73 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 89-73 | 89-73 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -39.1% | ||||||
| 4 | New York Yankees | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 76 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 76-86 | 76-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Cleveland Indians | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 76 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 76-86 | 76-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Detroit Tigers | AL | E | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75 | 87 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 87.0 | 75-87 | 75-87 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 7 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.8 | 0.0 | 73 | 89 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 89.0 | 73-89 | 73-89 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 96 | 66 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 66.0 | 96-66 | 96-66 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 47.3% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +18.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Minnesota Twins | AL | W | 0.3 | 0.0 | 90 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 90-72 | 90-72 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -16.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Chicago White Sox | AL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 86 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 86-76 | 86-76 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.5% | ||||||
| 4 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.6 | 0.0 | 77 | 85 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77.0 | 85.0 | 77-85 | 77-85 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | W | -0.2 | 0.0 | 72 | 90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 72-90 | 72-90 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | California Angels | AL | W | -0.6 | 0.0 | 72 | 90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 72-90 | 72-90 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 7 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | -0.4 | 0.0 | 64 | 98 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.0 | 98.0 | 64-98 | 64-98 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||


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