MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1992-10-04. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLAtlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates
ALToronto Blue JaysOakland Athletics
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.70.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%47.6%24.8%0.0%0.0%+36.0%
2Montreal ExposNLE0.50.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-35.6%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.40.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Chicago CubsNLE-0.20.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
5New York MetsNLE-0.60.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.30.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Atlanta BravesNLW0.80.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%52.4%29.1%0.0%+0.0%+6.0%
2Cincinnati RedsNLW0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.8%
3San Diego PadresNLW-0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.2%
4Houston AstrosNLW-0.30.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.60.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.70.163990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Toronto Blue JaysALE0.70.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%52.7%25.0%0.0%+9.4%+50.6%
2Milwaukee BrewersALE1.00.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-9.4%-11.5%
3Baltimore OriolesALE-0.10.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-39.1%
4New York YankeesALE-0.10.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cleveland IndiansALE-0.10.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Detroit TigersALE0.00.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Boston Red SoxALE-0.80.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.40.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%47.3%21.1%0.0%0.0%+18.5%
2Minnesota TwinsALW0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-16.9%
3Chicago White SoxALW0.40.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.5%
4Texas RangersALW-0.60.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.20.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6California AngelsALW-0.60.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Seattle MarinersALW-0.40.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%