MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1991-10-06. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLPittsburgh PiratesAtlanta Braves
ALMinnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.90.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%53.3%27.8%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.10.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.30.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4New York MetsNLE-0.20.077840.00.077.084.077-8477-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago CubsNLE-0.30.077830.00.077.083.077-8377-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Montreal ExposNLE-0.60.071900.00.071.090.071-9071-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Atlanta BravesNLW0.50.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%46.7%22.8%0.0%+72.9%+61.3%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.40.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-72.9%-60.8%
3San Diego PadresNLW0.20.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.20.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLW0.00.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
6Houston AstrosNLW-0.40.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Toronto Blue JaysALE0.30.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%43.0%19.6%0.0%+0.7%+25.5%
2Detroit TigersALE0.10.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-19.1%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.00.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.7%-6.2%
4Milwaukee BrewersALE0.40.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5New York YankeesALE-0.70.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Baltimore OriolesALE-0.40.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Cleveland IndiansALE-1.40.1571050.00.057.0105.057-10557-105<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Minnesota TwinsALW0.80.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%57.0%29.8%0.0%0.0%+4.9%
2Chicago White SoxALW1.10.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.6%
3Texas RangersALW-0.10.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4Oakland AthleticsALW-0.30.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5Seattle MarinersALW0.20.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Kansas City RoyalsALW0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7California AngelsALW-0.20.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%