MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1990-10-03. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
ALOakland AthleticsBoston Red Sox
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.50.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%54.2%25.9%0.0%+13.3%+74.1%
2New York MetsNLE0.90.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-13.3%-73.9%
3Montreal ExposNLE0.10.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
4Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.50.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago CubsNLE-0.40.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.40.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Cincinnati RedsNLW0.20.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%45.8%20.1%0.0%+0.5%+6.1%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.60.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.5%-5.6%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.30.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.5%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.10.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Houston AstrosNLW-0.40.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Atlanta BravesNLW-0.40.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE0.30.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%41.0%20.2%+14.5%+65.6%+5.7%
2Toronto Blue JaysALE0.50.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-14.5%-65.6%-5.7%
3Detroit TigersALE0.10.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Cleveland IndiansALE0.00.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.30.076850.00.076.085.076-8576-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.30.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7New York YankeesALE-0.90.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.80.0103590.00.0103.059.0103-59103-59>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%59.0%33.9%0.0%0.0%+1.1%
2Chicago White SoxALW0.10.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.1%
3Texas RangersALW0.30.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4California AngelsALW0.10.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Seattle MarinersALW-0.10.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Kansas City RoyalsALW0.20.075860.00.075.086.075-8675-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Minnesota TwinsALW-0.60.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%