MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-07-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsSt. Louis CardinalsAtlanta BravesSan Francisco GiantsMilwaukee Brewers
ALNew York YankeesHouston AstrosMinnesota TwinsToronto Blue JaysBoston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE0.5-0.3483046.038.094.068.0101-6187-7594.8%40.9%53.9%68.7%28.2%11.8%5.1%-1.3%-2.7%-4.4%
2Atlanta BravesNLE0.7-0.1463346.737.392.770.3100-6385-7890.3%46.4%43.9%61.7%32.1%13.8%5.3%+5.3%+6.4%+29.1%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.4-0.3413845.137.986.175.994-6878-8443.3%41.1%2.2%21.3%9.5%3.4%1.0%-1.7%+14.7%+26.8%
4Miami MarlinsNLE-0.3-0.1364041.644.477.684.485-7770-922.9%2.9%<0.1%1.0%0.3%0.2%0.2%+1.8%+0.9%+1.6%
5Washington NationalsNLE-1.50.2295132.449.661.4100.669-9354-108<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC1.0-0.4443648.333.792.369.7100-6284-7889.0%17.3%71.7%63.1%33.6%17.4%7.0%+3.3%+2.7%-8.1%
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.2-0.2453542.939.187.974.195-6781-8161.3%33.0%28.3%30.2%11.8%4.2%1.1%-5.6%+17.8%-31.9%
3Chicago CubsNLC-1.0-0.1324637.246.869.292.877-8562-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.7%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.60.1324632.951.164.997.172-9058-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.2-0.1265136.848.262.899.270-9255-107<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.5-0.1492852.132.9101.160.9108-5494-6899.8%3.2%96.6%97.5%60.2%39.1%20.1%+0.3%+0.1%-0.2%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW0.8-0.1403648.038.088.074.095-6781-8160.6%58.4%2.2%30.0%14.6%6.9%3.2%-1.2%-22.3%-29.5%
3San Diego PadresNLW0.20.0463441.740.387.774.395-6780-8258.0%56.8%1.2%26.5%9.7%3.2%1.3%-0.5%-17.5%+25.2%
4Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.60.2354337.346.772.389.779-8365-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.4%0.0%-6.1%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.90.2344436.248.870.292.877-8663-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-1.1%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.80.2582150.932.1108.953.1116-46102-60>99.9%0.6%99.4%99.8%64.3%40.2%25.3%0.0%0.0%+0.5%
2Toronto Blue JaysALE1.10.1443546.736.390.771.398-6484-7892.1%91.8%0.3%52.1%20.1%9.7%4.5%-2.9%-0.5%-1.3%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.90.4433544.639.487.674.495-6780-8275.6%75.3%0.3%36.8%14.4%7.0%3.1%-5.5%-6.1%+33.9%
4Tampa Bay RaysALE0.60.3423644.040.086.076.094-6879-8362.4%62.4%<0.1%31.5%11.3%5.2%2.7%+15.9%-3.2%-28.1%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.60.4354436.446.671.490.679-8364-980.4%0.4%<0.1%0.2%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.6%-0.8%+0.4%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.30.0453642.039.087.075.094-6880-8274.0%15.3%58.7%36.2%12.5%3.6%1.3%+1.1%+13.7%+24.1%
2Cleveland GuardiansALC0.0-0.1393644.642.483.678.492-7076-8645.3%18.5%26.8%20.7%6.6%1.7%0.7%-9.0%-18.0%-10.7%
3Chicago White SoxALC-0.2-0.3373944.042.081.081.089-7373-8924.6%10.1%14.5%11.0%3.2%0.8%0.3%+3.2%+10.8%+2.3%
4Detroit TigersALC-0.9-0.1304637.348.767.394.775-8760-1020.1%0.1%<0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.1%+0.1%-2.1%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.10.2284835.650.463.698.471-9156-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.2-0.2502750.434.6100.461.6108-5493-69>99.9%0.1%99.9%99.0%63.4%30.1%17.5%+0.1%+0.1%+1.5%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.10.0384241.640.479.682.487-7572-9011.9%11.9%<0.1%6.0%2.3%0.9%<0.1%-1.3%+1.7%+3.4%
3Texas RangersALW-0.20.1373941.244.878.283.886-7671-918.3%8.2%0.1%3.5%1.0%0.3%0.2%+1.8%+2.4%-3.8%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.10.1374340.341.777.384.785-7770-925.3%5.3%<0.1%3.1%0.8%0.5%0.1%-2.9%-0.2%-19.7%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-0.90.3265434.347.760.3101.768-9453-109<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%