Binge play every Immaculate Grid game with the new archive mode and put your baseball knowledge to the test.

2021 Major League Baseball Playoff Odds

World Series Champion: Atlanta Braves

Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free.

MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2023-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
	First Round Bye		Wild Card Round
Lg	Top Seed	Division Winner	Division Winner	Wild Card	Wild Card	Wild Card
NL	Atlanta Braves	Los Angeles Dodgers	Milwaukee Brewers	Philadelphia Phillies	Miami Marlins	Arizona Diamondbacks
AL	Baltimore Orioles	Texas Rangers	Minnesota Twins	Tampa Bay Rays	Toronto Blue Jays	Houston Astros

Playoff Odds

Learn more about our methodology

Playoff Odds Table
						Current		Remaining		Average		90% Confidence									Change
	Tm	Lg	D	SRS	rSOS	W	L	W	L	W	L	Best	Worst	Post	WC	Div	LDS	LCS	Pennant	Win WS	1 Day	7 Days	30 Days
NL East
1	Atlanta Braves	NL	E	1.6	-0.8	104	57	0.6	0.4	104.6	57.4	105-57	104-58	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	58.6%	32.2%	19.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Philadelphia Phillies	NL	E	1.1	0.2	89	72	0.6	0.4	89.6	72.4	90-72	89-73	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	60.1%	28.9%	15.3%	7.6%	0.0%	0.0%	+1.3%
3	Miami Marlins	NL	E	0.0	-0.8	84	76	1.4	0.6	85.4	76.6	86-76	84-78	98.9%	98.9%	0.0%	40.0%	13.1%	3.8%	1.3%	+7.2%	+59.5%	+89.6%
4	New York Mets	NL	E	0.2	1.1	74	86	0.6	1.4	74.6	87.4	76-86	74-88	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Washington Nationals	NL	E	-0.8	1.6	70	91	0.4	0.6	70.4	91.6	71-91	70-92	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NL Central
1	Milwaukee Brewers	NL	C	0.9	0.7	91	70	0.5	0.5	91.5	70.5	92-70	91-71	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	63.6%	31.3%	16.2%	9.3%	0.0%	0.0%	+2.9%
2	Chicago Cubs	NL	C	0.7	0.9	83	78	0.5	0.5	83.5	78.5	84-78	83-79	12.9%	12.9%	0.0%	5.9%	2.1%	0.5%	0.3%	+8.2%	-55.5%	-65.4%
3	Cincinnati Reds	NL	C	0.0	-1.0	82	79	0.6	0.4	82.6	79.4	83-79	82-80	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-8.4%	-8.3%	-30.0%
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	NL	C	-0.8	0.0	75	86	0.5	0.5	75.5	86.5	76-86	75-87	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	St. Louis Cardinals	NL	C	-1.0	0.0	70	91	0.4	0.6	70.4	91.6	71-91	70-92	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NL West
1	Los Angeles Dodgers	NL	W	1.3	-0.4	99	62	0.6	0.4	99.6	62.4	100-62	99-63	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	57.4%	29.9%	16.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Arizona Diamondbacks	NL	W	-0.2	0.4	84	77	0.5	0.5	84.5	77.5	85-77	84-78	88.2%	88.2%	0.0%	30.4%	8.6%	2.1%	0.6%	-7.0%	+4.6%	+55.7%
3	San Diego Padres	NL	W	0.8	-1.6	81	80	0.7	0.3	81.7	80.3	82-80	81-81	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.5%
4	San Francisco Giants	NL	W	-0.4	1.3	79	82	0.4	0.6	79.4	82.6	80-82	79-83	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.2%	-53.6%
5	Colorado Rockies	NL	W	-1.6	0.6	58	103	0.4	0.6	58.4	103.6	59-103	58-104	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
						Current		Remaining		Average		90% Confidence									Change
	Tm	Lg	D	SRS	rSOS	W	L	W	L	W	L	Best	Worst	Post	WC	Div	LDS	LCS	Pennant	Win WS	1 Day	7 Days	30 Days
AL East
1	Baltimore Orioles	AL	E	1.1	-0.3	101	60	0.6	0.4	101.6	60.4	102-60	101-61	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	56.3%	37.0%	18.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Tampa Bay Rays	AL	E	0.7	0.5	98	63	0.5	0.5	98.5	63.5	99-63	98-64	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	53.5%	24.9%	13.7%	5.6%	0.0%	0.0%	+0.7%
3	Toronto Blue Jays	AL	E	0.5	0.7	89	72	0.5	0.5	89.5	72.5	90-72	89-73	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	49.4%	25.3%	12.8%	6.0%	+2.5%	+8.6%	+50.4%
4	New York Yankees	AL	E	-0.7	-1.0	82	79	0.5	0.5	82.5	79.5	83-79	82-80	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Boston Red Sox	AL	E	-0.3	1.1	77	84	0.4	0.6	77.4	84.6	78-84	77-85	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.3%
AL Central
1	Minnesota Twins	AL	C	0.6	-1.6	87	74	0.6	0.4	87.6	74.4	88-74	87-75	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	53.9%	30.1%	13.6%	5.9%	0.0%	0.0%	+7.4%
2	Detroit Tigers	AL	C	-0.3	0.0	77	84	0.5	0.5	77.5	84.5	78-84	77-85	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.2%
3	Cleveland Guardians	AL	C	0.0	-0.3	76	85	0.5	0.5	76.5	85.5	77-85	76-86	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-7.2%
4	Chicago White Sox	AL	C	-1.6	0.8	61	100	0.3	0.7	61.3	100.7	62-100	61-101	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Kansas City Royals	AL	C	-1.0	-0.7	55	106	0.5	0.5	55.5	106.5	56-106	55-107	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AL West
1	Texas Rangers	AL	W	0.1	0.8	90	71	0.4	0.6	90.4	71.6	91-71	90-72	100.0%	30.4%	69.6%	83.9%	35.6%	11.1%	4.4%	+7.7%	+8.6%	+24.3%
2	Houston Astros	AL	W	0.4	-0.2	89	72	0.5	0.5	89.5	72.5	90-72	89-73	100.0%	69.6%	30.4%	59.3%	27.8%	11.8%	4.6%	+16.6%	+34.6%	+11.0%
3	Seattle Mariners	AL	W	0.8	0.1	87	74	0.6	0.4	87.6	74.4	88-74	87-75	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-26.8%	-51.8%	-86.1%
4	Los Angeles Angels	AL	W	-0.9	-1.3	72	89	0.5	0.5	72.5	89.5	73-89	72-90	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Oakland Athletics	AL	W	-1.3	-0.9	50	111	0.5	0.5	50.5	111.5	51-111	50-112	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

More 2021 Major League Baseball Pages

Fielding

Batting

Pitching

Leaders & Awards

Other

2021 Major League Baseball Playoff Odds

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds

More 2021 Major League Baseball Pages

Full Site Menu

FAQs, Tip & Tricks