MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2021-07-23. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE0.00.4514331.735.382.778.390-7176-8538.0%0.5%37.5%37.8%17.0%6.2%1.7%+7.6%+17.0%-14.7%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.2-0.2484834.331.782.379.789-7376-8635.6%0.2%35.4%35.5%17.3%6.1%2.9%+6.1%+1.7%+22.0%
3Atlanta BravesNLE0.20.1474933.331.780.380.787-7474-8719.0%0.2%18.8%18.8%9.7%3.2%1.0%-7.6%-9.4%-0.9%
4Washington NationalsNLE0.00.0455132.933.177.984.184-7871-917.5%0.1%7.4%7.4%3.8%1.0%0.4%-7.0%-6.6%-6.5%
5Miami MarlinsNLE0.10.0415732.031.073.088.079-8266-950.9%<0.1%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.3%0.1%+0.1%-3.0%-1.1%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.4-0.2574134.529.591.570.598-6485-7791.1%1.1%90.0%90.7%47.8%16.6%7.0%+6.1%+9.9%+52.9%
2Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.2-0.3504732.832.282.879.289-7376-869.8%3.3%6.5%8.2%3.1%1.1%0.3%-3.9%-15.8%0.0%
3Chicago CubsNLC-0.2-0.2485032.331.780.381.787-7574-882.8%0.8%2.0%2.4%1.0%0.4%0.3%-0.7%-2.3%-54.7%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.5-0.2494930.133.979.182.985-7773-892.2%0.7%1.5%1.7%0.6%0.1%<0.1%-4.3%+0.5%+0.4%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.20.0376027.337.764.397.771-9158-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW1.20.1613636.928.197.964.1104-5891-7199.7%44.7%55.0%78.7%39.8%25.8%15.0%-0.3%-0.3%+1.4%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.50.0594037.525.596.565.5103-5990-7299.3%61.7%37.6%70.0%37.0%25.2%14.1%-0.2%-0.4%+3.6%
3San Diego PadresNLW1.00.2584234.027.092.069.098-6386-7594.1%86.7%7.4%47.9%22.5%14.0%7.8%+4.1%+8.7%-2.4%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-0.50.4435428.736.371.790.378-8465-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-1.20.4306925.437.655.4106.662-10049-113<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Tampa Bay RaysALE0.90.0593936.327.895.366.8102-6089-7395.5%44.4%51.1%76.7%41.7%21.5%10.1%+4.8%+0.8%+5.9%
2Boston Red SoxALE0.70.1603834.729.394.767.3101-6188-7493.5%49.4%44.1%70.0%32.4%16.3%7.7%+3.1%+2.4%+31.4%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE1.1-0.2484539.929.187.974.195-6781-8139.3%34.9%4.4%21.8%10.7%5.4%3.1%-11.2%-10.8%+12.3%
4New York YankeesALE0.20.0504633.632.483.678.491-7177-8511.7%11.3%0.4%5.4%2.5%0.7%0.5%-0.4%+5.7%-14.6%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-1.00.2326428.038.060.0102.067-9553-109<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Chicago White SoxALC0.7-0.3583936.428.694.467.6101-6188-7499.0%<0.1%99.0%99.0%46.5%22.1%11.1%-0.3%+0.3%+4.7%
2Cleveland IndiansALC-0.5-0.2484732.035.080.082.087-7573-893.0%2.1%0.9%1.4%0.4%<0.1%<0.1%+0.5%-0.9%-21.7%
3Detroit TigersALC-0.8-0.1475228.434.675.486.682-8069-930.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.1%+0.2%+0.3%
4Minnesota TwinsALC-1.00.1425628.135.970.191.977-8564-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.0-0.1405529.537.569.592.576-8663-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.3-0.3593938.225.897.264.8103-5991-7198.2%6.5%91.7%96.0%54.5%29.2%14.2%+2.3%+0.4%+1.0%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.30.1564332.930.188.973.195-6783-7954.5%46.9%7.6%27.5%10.0%4.6%2.7%+0.5%+6.2%-16.7%
3Seattle MarinersALW-0.40.1524629.534.581.580.588-7475-874.5%3.8%0.7%1.7%1.0%0.1%<0.1%+0.8%-1.9%+1.1%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.30.1474931.234.878.283.885-7772-900.5%0.5%<0.1%0.3%0.2%0.1%<0.1%-0.2%-2.4%-2.7%
5Texas RangersALW-0.80.0356328.635.463.698.470-9258-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%