MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-05-21. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLLos Angeles DodgersMilwaukee BrewersAtlanta BravesSan Francisco GiantsSt. Louis CardinalsNew York Mets
ALNew York YankeesHouston AstrosMinnesota TwinsTampa Bay RaysToronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Angels
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.7-0.3192169.553.588.574.597-6679-8476.5%27.5%49.0%49.0%25.1%8.6%4.6%+2.4%-5.6%-19.1%
2New York MetsNLE0.0-0.2271561.558.588.573.598-6479-8377.6%32.2%45.4%41.9%16.6%4.9%2.3%-0.8%+6.5%+32.4%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.0-0.3182262.859.280.881.290-7272-9020.9%15.5%5.4%10.5%4.0%1.1%0.3%-4.2%-4.8%+14.1%
4Miami MarlinsNLE-0.8-0.1172254.768.371.790.381-8162-1001.2%1.0%0.2%0.5%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.5%-0.8%+0.3%
5Washington NationalsNLE-1.4-0.1132851.369.764.397.773-8955-107<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.3%-1.4%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.5-0.2261466.355.792.369.7101-6183-7993.0%32.2%60.8%67.6%32.1%10.1%4.8%+0.4%+3.6%-0.2%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.7-0.3221868.853.290.871.2100-6282-8087.3%48.2%39.1%56.1%27.7%10.8%5.4%-2.0%-2.5%-0.8%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.5-0.3112859.663.470.691.480-8262-1000.5%0.5%<0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.4%-1.1%-7.2%
4Chicago CubsNLC-1.40.0152451.571.566.595.576-8658-1040.1%<0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.80.0162346.376.762.399.771-9154-1080.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.1%+0.1%-0.1%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW2.0-0.1271279.543.5106.555.5115-4799-63>99.9%3.6%96.4%98.9%63.4%47.1%31.0%0.0%+0.2%+0.2%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW1.20.0221772.051.094.068.0103-5985-7794.9%91.4%3.5%56.5%25.3%15.5%8.2%-2.7%-4.2%-2.7%
3San Diego PadresNLW-0.30.2261457.065.083.079.092-7074-8835.0%34.9%0.1%13.6%3.9%1.2%0.5%+6.5%+16.6%+14.0%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-0.20.2192058.865.277.885.287-7668-9510.6%10.6%<0.1%4.6%1.7%0.7%0.3%+1.3%-6.2%-31.6%
5Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.60.2212152.867.273.888.282-8065-972.3%2.3%<0.1%0.7%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.3%+2.3%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.00.1291068.554.597.564.5106-5689-7398.5%38.4%60.1%78.0%40.2%23.0%10.1%+0.3%+0.9%+49.7%
2Tampa Bay RaysALE1.20.1241669.652.493.668.4102-6085-7796.0%73.4%22.6%63.7%32.3%19.4%9.2%+2.3%+3.1%+4.3%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE1.0-0.1221870.052.092.070.0101-6183-7991.0%74.3%16.7%54.6%28.3%14.4%5.9%-0.9%+6.4%-2.5%
4Boston Red SoxALE0.30.1182262.459.680.481.689-7372-9019.6%19.0%0.6%9.0%5.1%1.8%0.6%+3.2%+6.2%-31.7%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-1.50.3162546.574.562.599.572-9054-108<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.20.1241661.760.385.776.395-6777-8560.8%12.4%48.4%36.0%13.9%4.9%2.0%+4.8%+25.3%+54.6%
2Cleveland GuardiansALC0.40.0171966.259.883.278.893-6974-8843.3%11.2%32.1%24.3%10.7%4.1%1.2%-2.0%-7.2%-5.9%
3Chicago White SoxALC0.10.0192062.260.881.280.890-7272-9028.1%8.8%19.3%14.0%5.5%2.2%0.5%-10.6%-9.1%-41.7%
4Detroit TigersALC-0.40.1132656.866.269.892.279-8361-1010.4%0.3%0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.5%-1.3%-18.5%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.60.2142554.768.368.793.378-8460-1020.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%-0.4%-1.2%-2.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.0-0.1261569.052.095.067.0104-5886-7697.3%5.9%91.4%89.8%51.8%26.6%12.5%+0.1%+1.9%+34.3%
2Los Angeles AngelsALW0.00.2251758.961.183.978.193-6975-8745.2%39.1%6.1%20.7%7.8%2.4%0.4%+6.0%-15.8%+34.8%
3Seattle MarinersALW0.00.0172460.660.477.684.487-7568-9410.9%9.4%1.5%5.4%2.6%0.9%0.1%-0.5%-4.7%-18.7%
4Oakland AthleticsALW0.00.1172559.160.976.185.985-7768-946.8%5.9%0.9%3.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%-1.0%-5.9%-58.5%
5Texas RangersALW-0.70.1182154.868.272.889.281-8164-981.8%1.7%0.1%0.8%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%-0.8%+1.4%+1.8%