MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-10-05. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLLos Angeles DodgersAtlanta BravesSt. Louis CardinalsNew York MetsSan Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies
ALHouston AstrosNew York YankeesCleveland GuardiansToronto Blue JaysSeattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.3-0.2101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%63.0%29.3%14.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2New York MetsNLE0.8-0.1101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61100.0%100.0%0.0%58.4%19.8%10.2%4.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.1-0.187750.
4Miami MarlinsNLE-1.10.069930.
5Washington NationalsNLE-1.50.1551070.00.055.0107.055-10755-1070.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.6-0.293690.
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.1-0.186760.
3Chicago CubsNLC-0.5-0.174880.
4Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.20.0621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-1000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.40.0621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-1000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW2.0-0.1111510.00.0111.051.0111-51111-51100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%69.6%45.2%29.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2San Diego PadresNLW0.00.089730.
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.10.081810.
4Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.10.074880.
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.80.168940.
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.20.099630.
2Toronto Blue JaysALE0.60.192700.
3Tampa Bay RaysALE0.50.186760.
4Baltimore OriolesALE0.40.183790.
5Boston Red SoxALE-0.60.278840.
AL Central
1Cleveland GuardiansALC0.30.092700.
2Chicago White SoxALC0.00.081810.
3Minnesota TwinsALC-0.10.078840.
4Detroit TigersALC-0.60.066960.
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.70.165970.
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.8-0.1106560.00.0106.056.0106-56106-56100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%65.7%43.0%23.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.70.090720.
3Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.20.173890.
4Texas RangersALW-0.30.168940.
5Oakland AthleticsALW-0.90.2601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-1020.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%