MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-10-05. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | New York Mets | San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | ||
AL | Houston Astros | New York Yankees | Cleveland Guardians | Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays |
Playoff Odds
Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 1.3 | -0.2 | 101 | 61 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 101.0 | 61.0 | 101-61 | 101-61 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 63.0% | 29.3% | 14.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
2 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.8 | -0.1 | 101 | 61 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 101.0 | 61.0 | 101-61 | 101-61 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 58.4% | 19.8% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.1 | -0.1 | 87 | 75 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 75.0 | 87-75 | 87-75 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 46.6% | 15.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% | +14.7% | +39.6% | +12.4% | ||||||
4 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -1.1 | 0.0 | 69 | 93 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 69-93 | 69-93 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
5 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -1.5 | 0.1 | 55 | 107 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 107.0 | 55-107 | 55-107 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.6 | -0.2 | 93 | 69 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 93-69 | 93-69 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 53.4% | 21.7% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
2 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.1 | -0.1 | 86 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 86-76 | 86-76 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -14.7% | -43.4% | -43.1% | ||||||
3 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | -0.5 | -0.1 | 74 | 88 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 88.0 | 74-88 | 74-88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
4 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -1.2 | 0.0 | 62 | 100 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.0 | 100.0 | 62-100 | 62-100 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -1.4 | 0.0 | 62 | 100 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.0 | 100.0 | 62-100 | 62-100 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 2.0 | -0.1 | 111 | 51 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 111.0 | 51.0 | 111-51 | 111-51 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 69.6% | 45.2% | 29.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.0 | 0.0 | 89 | 73 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 89-73 | 89-73 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 41.6% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% | +3.8% | +32.8% | ||||||
3 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 81 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 81.0 | 81-81 | 81-81 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% | ||||||
4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 74 | 88 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 88.0 | 74-88 | 74-88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.9% | ||||||
5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -0.8 | 0.1 | 68 | 94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 68-94 | 68-94 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 1.2 | 0.0 | 99 | 63 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 99.0 | 63.0 | 99-63 | 99-63 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 59.9% | 27.5% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
2 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 0.6 | 0.1 | 92 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 92.0 | 70.0 | 92-70 | 92-70 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 45.8% | 15.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +14.1% | ||||||
3 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 0.5 | 0.1 | 86 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 86-76 | 86-76 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 50.7% | 21.5% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% | +0.3% | +6.9% | ||||||
4 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.4 | 0.1 | 83 | 79 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 83-79 | 83-79 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -20.9% | ||||||
5 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.6 | 0.2 | 78 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 78-84 | 78-84 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||||||
AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.3 | 0.0 | 92 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 92.0 | 70.0 | 92-70 | 92-70 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 49.3% | 18.6% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +49.7% | ||||||
2 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 81.0 | 81-81 | 81-81 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -24.0% | ||||||
3 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | -0.1 | 0.0 | 78 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 78-84 | 78-84 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -26.8% | ||||||
4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -0.6 | 0.0 | 66 | 96 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 66.0 | 96.0 | 66-96 | 66-96 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -0.7 | 0.1 | 65 | 97 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 65.0 | 97.0 | 65-97 | 65-97 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 1.8 | -0.1 | 106 | 56 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 106.0 | 56.0 | 106-56 | 106-56 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 65.7% | 43.0% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
2 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.7 | 0.0 | 90 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 90-72 | 90-72 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 54.2% | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.2% | ||||||
3 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -0.2 | 0.1 | 73 | 89 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 89.0 | 73-89 | 73-89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
4 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.3 | 0.1 | 68 | 94 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 68-94 | 68-94 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
5 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -0.9 | 0.2 | 60 | 102 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 102.0 | 60-102 | 60-102 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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