MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2023-10-01. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLAtlanta BravesLos Angeles DodgersMilwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia PhilliesMiami MarlinsArizona Diamondbacks
ALBaltimore OriolesHouston AstrosMinnesota TwinsTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue Jays
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.50.0104580.00.0104.058.0104-58104-58100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%57.0%28.2%15.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE1.20.090720.
3Miami MarlinsNLE-0.10.184780.8-0.884.877.285-7784-78100.0%100.0%0.0%38.1%11.6%4.1%1.6%+1.1%+57.7%+90.6%
4New York MetsNLE0.10.17587-0.80.874.287.875-8774-880.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Washington NationalsNLE-0.80.271910.
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.9-0.192700.
2Chicago CubsNLC0.7-0.183790.
3Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.10.082800.
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.80.176860.
5St. Louis CardinalsNLC-1.00.171910.
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.4-0.1100620.00.0100.062.0100-62100-62100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%60.7%32.8%18.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.30.184780.
3San Diego PadresNLW0.70.082800.
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.40.179830.
5Colorado RockiesNLW-1.50.1591030.00.059.0103.059-10359-1030.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.1-0.1101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%58.6%33.9%17.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Tampa Bay RaysALE0.7-0.199630.
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.40.089730.
4New York YankeesALE-0.70.182800.
5Boston Red SoxALE-0.20.078840.
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.6-0.287750.
2Detroit TigersALC-0.3-0.178840.
3Cleveland GuardiansALC-0.1-0.176860.
4Chicago White SoxALC-1.60.0611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-1010.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.0-0.1561060.00.056.0106.056-10656-1060.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW0.5-0.190720.
2Texas RangersALW0.1-0.190720.
3Seattle MarinersALW0.9-0.188740.
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.90.073890.
5Oakland AthleticsALW-1.30.0501120.00.050.0112.050-11250-1120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%