MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2021-06-14. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE0.20.1332552.550.585.575.593-6877-8455.6%1.6%54.0%54.5%28.6%9.5%4.4%+6.1%+12.3%+33.0%
2Atlanta BravesNLE0.40.0303351.847.281.880.290-7274-8822.6%1.0%21.6%22.1%11.1%4.1%1.2%+0.2%-11.2%-24.4%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.10.0323249.648.481.680.489-7373-8920.7%0.7%20.0%20.3%10.7%3.9%1.3%-6.7%+1.5%-7.3%
4Washington NationalsNLE-0.20.1283547.251.875.286.883-7967-953.0%<0.1%3.0%3.0%1.4%0.4%0.1%+0.4%-2.5%-18.6%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-0.20.2293744.550.573.587.581-8066-951.4%<0.1%1.4%1.4%0.5%0.1%<0.1%-0.3%+0.3%-5.1%
NL Central
1Chicago CubsNLC0.3-0.2382851.644.489.672.498-6481-8165.7%6.6%59.1%62.3%30.3%11.8%5.4%-2.9%+12.9%+50.1%
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.1-0.2382848.847.286.875.295-6779-8337.5%7.0%30.5%32.9%13.2%4.4%1.8%-1.4%+7.8%+24.9%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.2-0.1333148.549.581.580.590-7273-8910.1%2.6%7.5%8.6%3.8%1.3%0.3%+2.6%+1.4%-8.5%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.4-0.2333346.449.679.482.687-7572-904.3%1.4%2.9%3.6%1.5%0.4%0.2%+1.2%-10.7%-61.8%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.4-0.1234239.157.962.199.970-9255-107<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.60.0402657.438.697.464.6105-5790-7296.8%46.7%50.1%74.2%40.4%27.3%14.9%+0.7%-1.3%-2.6%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW1.00.1412554.441.695.466.6103-5987-7593.5%63.4%30.1%61.5%28.6%17.0%9.4%+2.1%-1.2%+31.1%
3San Diego PadresNLW1.40.1383055.738.393.768.3102-6085-7788.8%69.0%19.8%55.6%29.9%19.8%11.5%-2.0%-9.3%-6.0%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-1.10.3264139.255.865.296.873-8958-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.80.4204739.855.259.8102.268-9452-110<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.3%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Tampa Bay RaysALE1.2-0.1432456.238.899.262.8107-5591-7199.2%8.1%91.1%95.9%60.0%35.2%19.2%+0.4%+1.9%+27.6%
2Boston Red SoxALE0.20.2402748.346.788.373.796-6680-8259.3%53.9%5.4%32.2%13.3%5.9%2.4%+4.2%-4.3%+28.7%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.6-0.1333152.845.285.876.294-6877-8538.7%35.9%2.8%20.6%9.6%4.9%2.5%-8.9%-3.3%-10.1%
4New York YankeesALE0.30.1333249.847.282.879.291-7174-8820.3%19.6%0.7%10.4%3.7%1.7%0.7%+1.0%-11.5%-48.1%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.60.2224343.653.465.696.474-8857-105<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.0%
AL Central
1Chicago White SoxALC1.0-0.2412556.040.097.065.0105-5789-7398.8%1.5%97.3%97.9%54.6%26.8%13.7%-0.6%+0.7%+8.6%
2Cleveland IndiansALC-0.2-0.1352848.550.583.578.592-7075-8720.8%18.1%2.7%11.1%4.4%1.9%0.2%+1.0%+4.4%-14.3%
3Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.7-0.1303544.552.574.587.582-8067-950.7%0.7%<0.1%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.2%-3.4%-0.7%
4Minnesota TwinsALC-0.60.0264044.351.770.391.778-8463-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.1%-0.3%-3.0%
5Detroit TigersALC-1.1-0.1273941.454.668.493.677-8560-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.40.0412749.844.290.871.299-6383-7976.8%25.9%50.9%64.3%24.6%9.8%4.7%+2.6%+10.4%+1.7%
2Houston AstrosALW0.6-0.1372853.143.990.171.998-6482-8076.1%29.0%47.1%61.8%28.0%13.1%6.0%+3.0%+4.5%+9.0%
3Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.10.0333347.248.880.281.888-7472-908.2%6.2%2.0%5.0%1.7%0.7%0.1%-1.8%+4.7%+6.8%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.50.0333543.250.876.285.883-7968-941.1%1.1%<0.1%0.5%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.6%-3.8%-3.4%
5Texas RangersALW-0.8-0.1254142.953.167.994.176-8660-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.8%