MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2021-06-14. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| Lg | Top Seed | Wild Card | Wild Card | Division Winner | Division Winner | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres | Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | |||
| AL | Tampa Bay Rays | Houston Astros | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Oakland Athletics |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.1 | 33 | 25 | 52.5 | 50.5 | 85.5 | 75.5 | 93-68 | 77-84 | 55.6% | 1.6% | 54.0% | 54.5% | 28.6% | 9.5% | 4.4% | +6.1% | +12.3% | +33.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.4 | 0.0 | 30 | 33 | 51.8 | 47.2 | 81.8 | 80.2 | 90-72 | 74-88 | 22.6% | 1.0% | 21.6% | 22.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 1.2% | +0.2% | -11.2% | -24.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.1 | 0.0 | 32 | 32 | 49.6 | 48.4 | 81.6 | 80.4 | 89-73 | 73-89 | 20.7% | 0.7% | 20.0% | 20.3% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | -6.7% | +1.5% | -7.3% | ||||||
| 4 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -0.2 | 0.1 | 28 | 35 | 47.2 | 51.8 | 75.2 | 86.8 | 83-79 | 67-95 | 3.0% | <0.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | +0.4% | -2.5% | -18.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -0.2 | 0.2 | 29 | 37 | 44.5 | 50.5 | 73.5 | 87.5 | 81-80 | 66-95 | 1.4% | <0.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -0.3% | +0.3% | -5.1% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.3 | -0.2 | 38 | 28 | 51.6 | 44.4 | 89.6 | 72.4 | 98-64 | 81-81 | 65.7% | 6.6% | 59.1% | 62.3% | 30.3% | 11.8% | 5.4% | -2.9% | +12.9% | +50.1% | ||||||
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | -0.1 | -0.2 | 38 | 28 | 48.8 | 47.2 | 86.8 | 75.2 | 95-67 | 79-83 | 37.5% | 7.0% | 30.5% | 32.9% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 1.8% | -1.4% | +7.8% | +24.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.2 | -0.1 | 33 | 31 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 81.5 | 80.5 | 90-72 | 73-89 | 10.1% | 2.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | +2.6% | +1.4% | -8.5% | ||||||
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -0.4 | -0.2 | 33 | 33 | 46.4 | 49.6 | 79.4 | 82.6 | 87-75 | 72-90 | 4.3% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | +1.2% | -10.7% | -61.8% | ||||||
| 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -1.4 | -0.1 | 23 | 42 | 39.1 | 57.9 | 62.1 | 99.9 | 70-92 | 55-107 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.6 | 0.0 | 40 | 26 | 57.4 | 38.6 | 97.4 | 64.6 | 105-57 | 90-72 | 96.8% | 46.7% | 50.1% | 74.2% | 40.4% | 27.3% | 14.9% | +0.7% | -1.3% | -2.6% | ||||||
| 2 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 1.0 | 0.1 | 41 | 25 | 54.4 | 41.6 | 95.4 | 66.6 | 103-59 | 87-75 | 93.5% | 63.4% | 30.1% | 61.5% | 28.6% | 17.0% | 9.4% | +2.1% | -1.2% | +31.1% | ||||||
| 3 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 1.4 | 0.1 | 38 | 30 | 55.7 | 38.3 | 93.7 | 68.3 | 102-60 | 85-77 | 88.8% | 69.0% | 19.8% | 55.6% | 29.9% | 19.8% | 11.5% | -2.0% | -9.3% | -6.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.1 | 0.3 | 26 | 41 | 39.2 | 55.8 | 65.2 | 96.8 | 73-89 | 58-104 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | -0.8 | 0.4 | 20 | 47 | 39.8 | 55.2 | 59.8 | 102.2 | 68-94 | 52-110 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -4.3% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 1.2 | -0.1 | 43 | 24 | 56.2 | 38.8 | 99.2 | 62.8 | 107-55 | 91-71 | 99.2% | 8.1% | 91.1% | 95.9% | 60.0% | 35.2% | 19.2% | +0.4% | +1.9% | +27.6% | ||||||
| 2 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.2 | 0.2 | 40 | 27 | 48.3 | 46.7 | 88.3 | 73.7 | 96-66 | 80-82 | 59.3% | 53.9% | 5.4% | 32.2% | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | +4.2% | -4.3% | +28.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 0.6 | -0.1 | 33 | 31 | 52.8 | 45.2 | 85.8 | 76.2 | 94-68 | 77-85 | 38.7% | 35.9% | 2.8% | 20.6% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | -8.9% | -3.3% | -10.1% | ||||||
| 4 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.1 | 33 | 32 | 49.8 | 47.2 | 82.8 | 79.2 | 91-71 | 74-88 | 20.3% | 19.6% | 0.7% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | +1.0% | -11.5% | -48.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | -0.6 | 0.2 | 22 | 43 | 43.6 | 53.4 | 65.6 | 96.4 | 74-88 | 57-105 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | 1.0 | -0.2 | 41 | 25 | 56.0 | 40.0 | 97.0 | 65.0 | 105-57 | 89-73 | 98.8% | 1.5% | 97.3% | 97.9% | 54.6% | 26.8% | 13.7% | -0.6% | +0.7% | +8.6% | ||||||
| 2 | Cleveland Indians | AL | C | -0.2 | -0.1 | 35 | 28 | 48.5 | 50.5 | 83.5 | 78.5 | 92-70 | 75-87 | 20.8% | 18.1% | 2.7% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | +1.0% | +4.4% | -14.3% | ||||||
| 3 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -0.7 | -0.1 | 30 | 35 | 44.5 | 52.5 | 74.5 | 87.5 | 82-80 | 67-95 | 0.7% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.2% | -3.4% | -0.7% | ||||||
| 4 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | -0.6 | 0.0 | 26 | 40 | 44.3 | 51.7 | 70.3 | 91.7 | 78-84 | 63-99 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -3.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -1.1 | -0.1 | 27 | 39 | 41.4 | 54.6 | 68.4 | 93.6 | 77-85 | 60-102 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 41 | 27 | 49.8 | 44.2 | 90.8 | 71.2 | 99-63 | 83-79 | 76.8% | 25.9% | 50.9% | 64.3% | 24.6% | 9.8% | 4.7% | +2.6% | +10.4% | +1.7% | ||||||
| 2 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.6 | -0.1 | 37 | 28 | 53.1 | 43.9 | 90.1 | 71.9 | 98-64 | 82-80 | 76.1% | 29.0% | 47.1% | 61.8% | 28.0% | 13.1% | 6.0% | +3.0% | +4.5% | +9.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 33 | 33 | 47.2 | 48.8 | 80.2 | 81.8 | 88-74 | 72-90 | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | -1.8% | +4.7% | +6.8% | ||||||
| 4 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | -0.5 | 0.0 | 33 | 35 | 43.2 | 50.8 | 76.2 | 85.8 | 83-79 | 68-94 | 1.1% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.6% | -3.8% | -3.4% | ||||||
| 5 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.8 | -0.1 | 25 | 41 | 42.9 | 53.1 | 67.9 | 94.1 | 76-86 | 60-102 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.8% | ||||||
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