MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-06-22. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersMilwaukee BrewersAtlanta BravesSan Diego PadresNew York Mets
ALBaltimore OriolesCleveland IndiansSeattle MarinersNew York YankeesMinnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE1.10.0502649.136.999.162.9107-5591-71>99.9%7.8%92.2%93.7%52.4%28.3%15.6%+0.1%+0.1%+0.2%
2Atlanta BravesNLE0.40.0423246.042.088.074.096-6681-8185.6%78.6%7.0%47.4%19.9%7.9%4.6%-1.6%+3.5%-12.7%
3New York MetsNLE0.3-0.1363945.941.181.980.189-7375-8740.0%39.2%0.8%19.2%7.1%2.7%0.9%-3.9%+14.7%+22.7%
4Washington NationalsNLE-0.30.0373941.045.078.084.086-7670-9213.8%13.8%<0.1%5.4%2.1%0.6%0.2%+0.3%+2.7%+10.8%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-1.30.2265034.651.460.6101.468-9453-109<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC1.0-0.1443349.435.693.468.6101-6186-7698.3%3.8%94.5%73.7%39.6%21.8%10.9%+0.4%-0.8%+1.2%
2Cincinnati RedsNLC0.2-0.2364045.041.081.081.088-7473-8931.0%27.8%3.2%13.3%6.0%1.2%0.2%-3.7%-10.7%+26.7%
3Chicago CubsNLC-0.20.0374041.743.378.783.386-7671-9117.0%15.9%1.1%6.1%2.5%0.9%0.4%+7.1%-6.7%-53.8%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.50.1383740.146.978.183.986-7671-9113.6%13.0%0.6%3.9%1.4%0.2%0.1%+0.7%+2.0%+12.2%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.50.1373939.446.676.485.684-7869-937.7%7.1%0.6%3.2%1.3%0.5%0.2%+0.8%-3.4%+0.6%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.3-0.1483148.934.196.965.1104-5889-7399.8%3.1%96.7%90.5%50.0%28.7%16.5%-0.2%+0.2%-0.2%
2San Diego PadresNLW0.4-0.1414043.937.184.977.192-7078-8465.5%62.9%2.6%31.7%13.7%6.0%2.4%+4.2%-4.2%-6.3%
3Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.00.1383942.043.080.082.088-7472-9024.4%23.7%0.7%10.9%3.9%1.2%0.6%-3.2%+4.3%-1.1%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.60.0364138.646.474.687.482-8067-953.3%3.3%<0.1%1.0%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-1.0%-1.7%-0.2%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-1.50.1275034.450.661.4100.668-9455-107<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.4-0.1492751.035.0100.062.0108-5492-7099.8%44.9%54.9%79.4%43.9%27.3%14.9%-0.2%+0.2%+5.5%
2New York YankeesALE0.9-0.1522747.735.399.762.3107-5592-70>99.9%55.0%45.0%75.6%37.5%19.7%10.4%+0.3%0.0%+4.3%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.20.1413643.042.084.078.091-7176-8634.9%34.8%0.1%15.6%6.5%2.9%0.9%+2.5%+24.9%+18.1%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.30.1354140.645.475.686.483-7968-941.4%1.4%<0.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%<0.1%-1.9%-4.4%-14.1%
5Tampa Bay RaysALE-0.50.3374037.947.174.987.182-8068-940.6%0.6%<0.1%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-1.6%+0.2%-6.6%
AL Central
1Cleveland GuardiansALC0.50.2482646.042.094.068.0102-6086-7696.0%22.1%73.9%80.7%42.6%20.8%9.6%+1.1%+3.9%+15.2%
2Minnesota TwinsALC0.70.0423546.338.788.373.796-6681-8175.8%60.2%15.6%44.5%21.3%9.9%4.3%+2.3%+0.9%+6.3%
3Kansas City RoyalsALC0.4-0.1423644.839.286.875.294-6880-8261.9%51.8%10.1%34.4%16.0%7.2%2.6%-7.1%-22.6%-17.8%
4Detroit TigersALC0.10.0354144.042.079.083.086-7672-906.6%6.2%0.4%3.4%1.3%0.5%0.2%-1.8%-16.6%-4.9%
5Chicago White SoxALC-1.70.0215731.952.152.9109.160-10246-116<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Seattle MarinersALW0.1-0.1453442.840.287.874.295-6780-8282.1%6.7%75.4%45.9%20.5%7.1%2.5%+6.1%+2.9%+2.5%
2Houston AstrosALW0.4-0.1374045.439.682.479.690-7275-8732.0%12.0%20.0%15.3%8.2%3.9%1.7%-1.1%+11.2%-7.6%
3Texas RangersALW-0.1-0.1364042.743.378.783.386-7671-918.8%4.2%4.6%4.2%1.9%0.6%0.3%+1.5%-0.6%-0.4%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.9-0.2304639.346.769.392.777-8562-1000.1%0.1%<0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.1%0.0%-0.2%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-1.2-0.1295034.848.263.898.271-9156-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%