MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-06-25. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres | ||
| AL | New York Yankees | Houston Astros | Cleveland Indians | Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.6 | -0.3 | 47 | 26 | 49.6 | 39.4 | 96.6 | 65.4 | 104-58 | 89-73 | 97.5% | 25.3% | 72.2% | 79.2% | 38.4% | 15.5% | 7.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% | +10.7% | ||||||
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.7 | -0.1 | 42 | 31 | 49.7 | 40.3 | 91.7 | 71.3 | 99-64 | 84-79 | 83.9% | 58.0% | 25.9% | 55.4% | 26.9% | 12.7% | 5.8% | +1.1% | +14.7% | +24.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.2 | -0.2 | 38 | 35 | 46.9 | 42.1 | 84.9 | 77.1 | 92-70 | 78-84 | 28.6% | 26.8% | 1.8% | 13.3% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | -0.6% | -23.3% | -2.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -0.3 | -0.1 | 32 | 38 | 44.8 | 47.2 | 76.8 | 85.2 | 85-77 | 69-93 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -0.5% | +0.8% | +0.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -1.4 | 0.1 | 26 | 48 | 36.1 | 51.9 | 62.1 | 99.9 | 71-91 | 54-108 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.7 | -0.4 | 41 | 33 | 50.4 | 37.6 | 91.4 | 70.6 | 99-63 | 84-78 | 86.3% | 8.2% | 78.1% | 54.4% | 24.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | -2.3% | -5.5% | -4.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.0 | -0.2 | 41 | 33 | 44.9 | 43.1 | 85.9 | 76.1 | 94-68 | 78-84 | 43.5% | 21.6% | 21.9% | 18.8% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | +8.5% | +10.2% | -46.2% | ||||||
| 3 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | -1.3 | -0.1 | 27 | 45 | 38.7 | 51.3 | 65.7 | 96.3 | 73-89 | 58-104 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -1.6 | 0.0 | 29 | 42 | 35.7 | 55.3 | 64.7 | 97.3 | 72-90 | 57-105 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -1.1 | -0.3 | 24 | 47 | 40.6 | 50.4 | 64.6 | 97.4 | 72-90 | 57-105 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.5% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.6 | -0.1 | 44 | 26 | 56.6 | 35.4 | 100.6 | 61.4 | 108-54 | 93-69 | 99.7% | 12.7% | 87.0% | 93.3% | 58.3% | 38.3% | 21.7% | 0.0% | +0.4% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 2 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 1.1 | -0.2 | 39 | 32 | 52.5 | 38.5 | 91.5 | 70.5 | 99-63 | 84-78 | 82.9% | 75.8% | 7.1% | 48.1% | 24.0% | 11.9% | 6.2% | +2.5% | -4.8% | -9.8% | ||||||
| 3 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.3 | 0.1 | 45 | 29 | 45.0 | 43.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 98-64 | 83-79 | 75.5% | 69.6% | 5.9% | 36.8% | 15.6% | 6.4% | 2.5% | -8.3% | +7.9% | +32.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | -0.7 | 0.2 | 32 | 41 | 39.3 | 49.7 | 71.3 | 90.7 | 79-83 | 64-98 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -2.5% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -0.9 | 0.3 | 31 | 41 | 38.7 | 52.3 | 69.7 | 93.3 | 78-85 | 62-101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | 0.0% | -2.5% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 1.5 | 0.2 | 52 | 20 | 53.8 | 36.2 | 105.8 | 56.2 | 113-49 | 98-64 | >99.9% | 3.0% | 97.0% | 98.6% | 57.5% | 35.4% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 1.3 | 0.1 | 40 | 31 | 51.7 | 39.3 | 91.7 | 70.3 | 100-62 | 84-78 | 92.6% | 90.9% | 1.7% | 51.5% | 22.9% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | +0.4% | +6.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.9 | 0.4 | 41 | 31 | 48.0 | 42.0 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 97-65 | 81-81 | 81.7% | 80.6% | 1.1% | 43.4% | 19.1% | 9.2% | 3.9% | +3.9% | +25.1% | +40.9% | ||||||
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 0.7 | 0.4 | 39 | 32 | 47.5 | 43.5 | 86.5 | 75.5 | 94-68 | 79-83 | 65.6% | 65.4% | 0.2% | 32.2% | 14.0% | 6.9% | 3.8% | -1.0% | -9.2% | -23.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | -0.4 | 0.3 | 34 | 39 | 39.8 | 49.2 | 73.8 | 88.2 | 81-81 | 67-95 | 1.2% | 1.2% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | +0.2% | +0.7% | +1.1% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.2 | -0.1 | 36 | 31 | 49.7 | 45.3 | 85.7 | 76.3 | 94-68 | 78-84 | 63.3% | 13.5% | 49.8% | 31.9% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 1.2% | -2.6% | -0.6% | +35.7% | ||||||
| 2 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.2 | 0.0 | 40 | 33 | 45.5 | 43.5 | 85.5 | 76.5 | 93-69 | 78-84 | 60.3% | 18.9% | 41.4% | 30.9% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | +9.0% | +0.2% | -3.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -0.3 | -0.2 | 33 | 37 | 46.0 | 46.0 | 79.0 | 83.0 | 87-75 | 72-90 | 13.8% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | -7.9% | -15.7% | -21.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -0.8 | 0.0 | 28 | 43 | 40.0 | 51.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 75-87 | 60-102 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -1.0 | 0.2 | 26 | 44 | 39.2 | 52.8 | 65.2 | 96.8 | 73-89 | 57-105 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.9 | -0.1 | 45 | 26 | 52.2 | 38.8 | 97.2 | 64.8 | 104-58 | 90-72 | 99.9% | 0.3% | 99.6% | 96.5% | 55.1% | 25.9% | 12.8% | +0.4% | +3.7% | +1.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.1 | -0.1 | 34 | 39 | 45.6 | 43.4 | 79.6 | 82.4 | 87-75 | 72-90 | 10.2% | 10.0% | 0.2% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.6% | +5.0% | +5.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | 0.0 | 0.1 | 34 | 40 | 43.9 | 44.1 | 77.9 | 84.1 | 85-77 | 71-91 | 5.5% | 5.5% | <0.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -1.9% | -8.8% | -45.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.3 | 0.0 | 34 | 36 | 43.8 | 48.2 | 77.8 | 84.2 | 85-77 | 71-91 | 5.9% | 5.7% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | +0.5% | -0.7% | +3.2% | ||||||
| 5 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -1.0 | 0.2 | 24 | 49 | 36.7 | 52.3 | 60.7 | 101.3 | 68-94 | 54-108 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.7% | ||||||
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