MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2023-05-20. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLLos Angeles DodgersAtlanta BravesMilwaukee BrewersSt. Louis CardinalsArizona DiamondbacksNew York Mets
ALTampa Bay RaysHouston AstrosMinnesota TwinsNew York YankeesTexas RangersToronto Blue Jays
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.3-0.2281770.246.898.263.8107-5590-72>99.9%1.1%98.9%97.0%63.5%33.4%16.6%+0.2%+0.3%+0.7%
2New York MetsNLE0.20.0232359.057.082.080.091-7173-8955.9%54.9%1.0%29.3%10.1%3.5%1.1%+0.8%+6.8%-41.2%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.40.0212455.761.376.785.385-7768-9418.9%18.9%<0.1%8.5%2.6%0.9%0.3%+3.1%-15.9%+8.3%
4Miami MarlinsNLE-0.90.0242249.966.173.988.183-7965-978.8%8.7%0.1%4.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%+2.0%+5.4%+8.1%
5Washington NationalsNLE-1.00.0192750.066.069.093.077-8561-1010.7%0.7%<0.1%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.3%-0.2%+0.7%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.0-0.2242160.156.984.177.993-6976-8668.4%26.8%41.6%35.8%12.2%3.8%1.1%-4.9%-6.9%-17.7%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.6-0.3202764.051.084.078.092-7075-8769.7%33.0%36.7%39.1%17.5%8.0%3.1%+6.5%+26.1%+3.9%
3Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.5-0.1242155.161.979.182.988-7470-9235.3%24.7%10.6%15.4%5.0%2.1%0.4%+1.9%+19.1%+30.3%
4Chicago CubsNLC0.0-0.1202558.957.178.982.187-7471-9032.0%21.3%10.7%16.7%6.8%2.7%0.7%-9.5%-11.7%-27.6%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.30.1192647.268.866.294.875-8658-1030.4%<0.1%0.4%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.3%-0.5%-0.6%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.5-0.2291870.544.599.562.5108-5491-71>99.9%1.4%98.6%98.9%64.6%38.9%22.0%0.0%+0.1%+0.3%
2Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.10.0262057.059.083.079.092-7074-8863.2%61.9%1.3%32.7%9.6%3.8%1.8%+6.0%-1.0%+19.4%
3San Diego PadresNLW-0.1-0.1202657.658.477.684.486-7668-9423.0%23.0%<0.1%10.2%3.5%1.2%0.3%-0.5%-29.3%+5.1%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.30.0212456.460.677.484.686-7669-9323.1%23.0%0.1%11.5%3.7%1.4%0.5%-5.3%+7.5%+9.9%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-1.10.1192749.266.868.293.878-8460-1020.6%0.6%<0.1%0.2%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.3%+0.2%+0.4%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Tampa Bay RaysALE1.70.1341369.745.3103.758.3112-5095-6799.8%9.6%90.2%96.6%60.2%36.6%22.5%+0.1%+0.2%+2.6%
2New York YankeesALE1.00.1282064.449.692.469.6101-6184-7881.2%74.6%6.6%47.2%22.4%11.3%5.8%+5.0%+19.9%-11.8%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.90.1252163.852.288.873.298-6480-8256.2%54.8%1.4%31.5%13.0%5.7%2.8%-8.7%-18.0%-11.9%
4Baltimore OriolesALE0.30.3301657.958.187.974.196-6680-8250.7%49.3%1.4%24.6%8.6%2.7%0.8%+2.5%-3.6%+9.0%
5Boston Red SoxALE0.30.2262058.457.684.477.693-6976-8625.4%25.0%0.4%11.6%5.3%2.5%0.6%-1.2%+2.0%+23.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.3-0.1252160.555.585.576.594-6877-8570.9%1.8%69.1%35.3%13.0%4.0%1.5%+2.6%+17.0%+45.8%
2Cleveland GuardiansALC0.10.0202459.758.379.782.389-7371-9124.5%2.0%22.5%11.9%4.4%1.2%0.2%0.0%-13.8%-55.6%
3Detroit TigersALC-0.7-0.1202354.964.174.987.184-7866-967.1%0.1%7.0%2.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%-2.7%-2.1%+5.6%
4Chicago White SoxALC-0.7-0.1182952.962.170.991.180-8262-1001.3%<0.1%1.3%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.2%-0.1%-4.1%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.00.1143349.265.863.298.872-9055-1070.1%<0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.1%-0.2%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.3-0.1261970.446.696.465.6105-5788-7495.5%12.5%83.0%87.6%54.2%28.5%15.4%-1.0%+4.1%+0.7%
2Texas RangersALW0.50.1281760.956.188.973.198-6480-8257.2%43.7%13.5%33.9%12.5%5.7%2.0%+0.1%+11.9%+27.5%
3Seattle MarinersALW0.40.0222361.755.383.778.392-7075-8721.7%18.9%2.8%12.9%4.5%1.1%0.3%+4.2%-14.3%-30.9%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW0.00.1242356.458.680.481.689-7371-918.4%7.7%0.7%4.1%1.4%0.4%<0.1%-1.2%-3.0%+0.1%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-2.30.2103740.774.350.7111.359-10342-120<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%