MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2023-05-20. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | ||
| AL | Tampa Bay Rays | Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 1.3 | -0.2 | 28 | 17 | 70.2 | 46.8 | 98.2 | 63.8 | 107-55 | 90-72 | >99.9% | 1.1% | 98.9% | 97.0% | 63.5% | 33.4% | 16.6% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.7% | ||||||
| 2 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 23 | 23 | 59.0 | 57.0 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 91-71 | 73-89 | 55.9% | 54.9% | 1.0% | 29.3% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | +0.8% | +6.8% | -41.2% | ||||||
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | -0.4 | 0.0 | 21 | 24 | 55.7 | 61.3 | 76.7 | 85.3 | 85-77 | 68-94 | 18.9% | 18.9% | <0.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | +3.1% | -15.9% | +8.3% | ||||||
| 4 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -0.9 | 0.0 | 24 | 22 | 49.9 | 66.1 | 73.9 | 88.1 | 83-79 | 65-97 | 8.8% | 8.7% | 0.1% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | +2.0% | +5.4% | +8.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -1.0 | 0.0 | 19 | 27 | 50.0 | 66.0 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 77-85 | 61-101 | 0.7% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.3% | -0.2% | +0.7% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.0 | -0.2 | 24 | 21 | 60.1 | 56.9 | 84.1 | 77.9 | 93-69 | 76-86 | 68.4% | 26.8% | 41.6% | 35.8% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | -4.9% | -6.9% | -17.7% | ||||||
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.6 | -0.3 | 20 | 27 | 64.0 | 51.0 | 84.0 | 78.0 | 92-70 | 75-87 | 69.7% | 33.0% | 36.7% | 39.1% | 17.5% | 8.0% | 3.1% | +6.5% | +26.1% | +3.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.5 | -0.1 | 24 | 21 | 55.1 | 61.9 | 79.1 | 82.9 | 88-74 | 70-92 | 35.3% | 24.7% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | +1.9% | +19.1% | +30.3% | ||||||
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.0 | -0.1 | 20 | 25 | 58.9 | 57.1 | 78.9 | 82.1 | 87-74 | 71-90 | 32.0% | 21.3% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | -9.5% | -11.7% | -27.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -1.3 | 0.1 | 19 | 26 | 47.2 | 68.8 | 66.2 | 94.8 | 75-86 | 58-103 | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.6% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.5 | -0.2 | 29 | 18 | 70.5 | 44.5 | 99.5 | 62.5 | 108-54 | 91-71 | >99.9% | 1.4% | 98.6% | 98.9% | 64.6% | 38.9% | 22.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +0.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | -0.1 | 0.0 | 26 | 20 | 57.0 | 59.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 92-70 | 74-88 | 63.2% | 61.9% | 1.3% | 32.7% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | +6.0% | -1.0% | +19.4% | ||||||
| 3 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | -0.1 | -0.1 | 20 | 26 | 57.6 | 58.4 | 77.6 | 84.4 | 86-76 | 68-94 | 23.0% | 23.0% | <0.1% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | -0.5% | -29.3% | +5.1% | ||||||
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -0.3 | 0.0 | 21 | 24 | 56.4 | 60.6 | 77.4 | 84.6 | 86-76 | 69-93 | 23.1% | 23.0% | 0.1% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | -5.3% | +7.5% | +9.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.1 | 0.1 | 19 | 27 | 49.2 | 66.8 | 68.2 | 93.8 | 78-84 | 60-102 | 0.6% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.3% | +0.2% | +0.4% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 1.7 | 0.1 | 34 | 13 | 69.7 | 45.3 | 103.7 | 58.3 | 112-50 | 95-67 | 99.8% | 9.6% | 90.2% | 96.6% | 60.2% | 36.6% | 22.5% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +2.6% | ||||||
| 2 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 1.0 | 0.1 | 28 | 20 | 64.4 | 49.6 | 92.4 | 69.6 | 101-61 | 84-78 | 81.2% | 74.6% | 6.6% | 47.2% | 22.4% | 11.3% | 5.8% | +5.0% | +19.9% | -11.8% | ||||||
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 0.9 | 0.1 | 25 | 21 | 63.8 | 52.2 | 88.8 | 73.2 | 98-64 | 80-82 | 56.2% | 54.8% | 1.4% | 31.5% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% | -8.7% | -18.0% | -11.9% | ||||||
| 4 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.3 | 30 | 16 | 57.9 | 58.1 | 87.9 | 74.1 | 96-66 | 80-82 | 50.7% | 49.3% | 1.4% | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | +2.5% | -3.6% | +9.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.2 | 26 | 20 | 58.4 | 57.6 | 84.4 | 77.6 | 93-69 | 76-86 | 25.4% | 25.0% | 0.4% | 11.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% | -1.2% | +2.0% | +23.0% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.3 | -0.1 | 25 | 21 | 60.5 | 55.5 | 85.5 | 76.5 | 94-68 | 77-85 | 70.9% | 1.8% | 69.1% | 35.3% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | +2.6% | +17.0% | +45.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.1 | 0.0 | 20 | 24 | 59.7 | 58.3 | 79.7 | 82.3 | 89-73 | 71-91 | 24.5% | 2.0% | 22.5% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -13.8% | -55.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -0.7 | -0.1 | 20 | 23 | 54.9 | 64.1 | 74.9 | 87.1 | 84-78 | 66-96 | 7.1% | 0.1% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -2.7% | -2.1% | +5.6% | ||||||
| 4 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -0.7 | -0.1 | 18 | 29 | 52.9 | 62.1 | 70.9 | 91.1 | 80-82 | 62-100 | 1.3% | <0.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -4.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -1.0 | 0.1 | 14 | 33 | 49.2 | 65.8 | 63.2 | 98.8 | 72-90 | 55-107 | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | -0.2% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 1.3 | -0.1 | 26 | 19 | 70.4 | 46.6 | 96.4 | 65.6 | 105-57 | 88-74 | 95.5% | 12.5% | 83.0% | 87.6% | 54.2% | 28.5% | 15.4% | -1.0% | +4.1% | +0.7% | ||||||
| 2 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | 0.5 | 0.1 | 28 | 17 | 60.9 | 56.1 | 88.9 | 73.1 | 98-64 | 80-82 | 57.2% | 43.7% | 13.5% | 33.9% | 12.5% | 5.7% | 2.0% | +0.1% | +11.9% | +27.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 22 | 23 | 61.7 | 55.3 | 83.7 | 78.3 | 92-70 | 75-87 | 21.7% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 12.9% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | +4.2% | -14.3% | -30.9% | ||||||
| 4 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | 0.0 | 0.1 | 24 | 23 | 56.4 | 58.6 | 80.4 | 81.6 | 89-73 | 71-91 | 8.4% | 7.7% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | -1.2% | -3.0% | +0.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -2.3 | 0.2 | 10 | 37 | 40.7 | 74.3 | 50.7 | 111.3 | 59-103 | 42-120 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
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