MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2019-09-29. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Wild Card Wild Card Division Winner Division Winner Odds
NLLos Angeles DodgersMilwaukee BrewersWashington NationalsAtlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals100%
ALHouston AstrosOakland AthleticsTampa Bay RaysMinnesota TwinsNew York Yankees100%
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.30.397650.00.097.065.097-6597-65100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%51.7%25.3%12.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Washington NationalsNLE1.70.293690.00.093.069.093-6993-69100.0%100.0%0.0%59.4%28.7%14.4%8.8%0.0%+1.9%+2.4%
3New York MetsNLE0.90.386760.00.086.076.086-7686-760.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-1.8%-8.5%
4Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.00.481810.00.081.081.081-8181-810.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-6.4%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-0.80.5571050.00.057.0105.057-10557-1050.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.90.191710.00.091.071.091-7191-71100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%48.3%21.0%10.2%0.0%0.0%+18.6%
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.10.289730.00.089.073.089-7389-73100.0%100.0%0.0%40.6%14.1%5.4%2.1%0.0%+2.5%+94.0%
3Chicago CubsNLC0.50.184780.00.084.078.084-7884-780.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-2.5%-83.1%
4Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.30.375870.00.075.087.075-8775-870.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.60.369930.00.069.093.069-9369-930.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.60.0106560.00.0106.056.0106-56106-56100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%57.2%33.9%19.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.50.285770.00.085.077.085-7785-770.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-15.7%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW0.20.277850.00.077.085.077-8577-850.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.9%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-0.80.371910.00.071.091.071-9171-910.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Diego PadresNLW-0.50.270920.00.070.092.070-9270-920.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.1-0.3103590.00.0103.059.0103-59103-59100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%58.6%29.9%14.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Tampa Bay RaysALE0.1-0.396660.00.096.066.096-6696-66100.0%100.0%0.0%42.8%13.8%5.7%2.3%0.0%+54.6%+70.3%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.0-0.284780.00.084.078.084-7884-780.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-3.2%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.5-0.267950.00.067.095.067-9567-950.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-1.30.0541080.00.054.0108.054-10854-1080.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.3-0.5101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%41.4%16.6%6.3%0.0%+0.1%+0.3%
2Cleveland IndiansALC0.6-0.693690.00.093.069.093-6993-690.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-56.1%-78.8%
3Chicago White SoxALC-1.0-0.472890.00.072.089.072-8972-890.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.3-0.3591030.00.059.0103.059-10359-1030.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALC-2.4-0.2471140.00.047.0114.047-11447-1140.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.3-0.3107550.00.0107.055.0107-55107-55100.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%58.6%32.7%16.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Oakland AthleticsALW1.1-0.397650.00.097.065.097-6597-65100.0%100.0%0.0%57.2%27.6%15.1%6.9%0.0%+1.4%+11.4%
3Texas RangersALW-1.0-0.178840.00.078.084.078-8478-840.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.90.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-900.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Seattle MarinersALW-0.8-0.168940.00.068.094.068-9468-940.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%