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MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2019-05-23.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Wild Card Wild Card Division Winner Division Winner Odds
NLLos Angeles DodgersMilwaukee BrewersSt. Louis CardinalsAtlanta BravesChicago Cubs6.2%
ALHouston AstrosNew York YankeesOakland AthleticsMinnesota TwinsTampa Bay Rays9.1%
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence
Tm Lg D SRS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.5282361.849.289.872.299-6381-8181.1%6.4%74.7%78.4%30.5%13.3%5.5%
2New York MetsNLE0.1242558.154.982.179.990-7273-8922.9%9.5%13.4%18.5%7.1%1.8%1.0%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.5292152.359.781.380.790-7272-9019.8%10.3%9.5%12.9%3.5%1.5%0.8%
4Washington NationalsNLE-0.1193157.055.076.086.085-7767-953.4%1.0%2.4%2.7%0.9%0.4%0.0%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-1.7163142.572.558.5103.567-9550-1120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Chicago CubsNLC0.8291962.351.791.370.7100-6283-7981.3%37.4%43.9%64.3%35.0%16.2%7.8%
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC1.0292261.749.390.771.399-6382-8079.8%40.5%39.3%61.5%30.0%13.0%7.0%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.9252461.851.286.875.296-6678-8450.6%35.2%15.4%32.6%16.7%7.5%3.5%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.2252254.160.979.182.988-7471-918.7%7.3%1.4%4.6%1.0%0.3%0.1%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.2222752.860.274.887.283-7966-961.2%1.2%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.8321870.341.7102.359.7111-5194-6899.6%1.3%98.3%99.2%66.7%42.0%26.3%
2Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.4252559.053.084.078.093-6975-8729.6%28.8%0.8%14.5%5.2%2.4%0.7%
3Colorado RockiesNLW0.6222659.254.881.280.891-7173-8915.4%14.5%0.9%7.2%2.3%1.3%0.6%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.3262452.559.578.583.587-7571-916.6%6.6%0.0%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%
5San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.8212847.066.068.094.076-8660-1020.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence
Tm Lg D SRS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS
AL East
1Tampa Bay RaysALE1.0291868.346.797.364.7106-5689-7394.7%27.7%67.0%83.0%45.9%23.8%10.4%
2New York YankeesALE0.6321761.351.793.368.7102-6085-7784.1%57.1%27.0%55.4%26.1%10.6%4.4%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.4272359.952.186.975.196-6678-8438.8%32.8%6.0%21.1%8.7%4.3%0.9%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-1.1203046.665.466.695.475-8759-1030.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-2.1153541.970.156.9105.166-9649-1130.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.3331661.052.094.068.0102-6086-7690.8%6.4%84.4%87.0%35.2%13.2%5.4%
2Cleveland IndiansALC0.2252460.752.385.776.395-6778-8433.4%18.2%15.2%24.0%9.6%5.0%2.4%
3Chicago White SoxALC-1.1232649.064.072.090.080-8264-980.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.5173254.858.271.890.281-8163-990.5%0.1%0.4%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.1%
5Detroit TigersALC-1.9182944.370.762.399.771-9154-1080.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.4331867.243.8100.261.8108-5491-7198.3%4.9%93.4%96.2%58.5%36.3%20.3%
2Oakland AthleticsALW1.0252563.248.888.273.897-6579-8348.6%42.3%6.3%28.5%13.9%6.3%2.5%
3Texas RangersALW-0.1242356.958.180.981.190-7272-909.3%9.0%0.3%3.7%1.8%0.3%0.1%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.2232953.057.076.086.085-7767-951.1%1.1%0.0%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.1%
5Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.4222751.461.673.488.682-8065-970.3%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
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