MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2021-10-03. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLSan Francisco GiantsMilwaukee BrewersAtlanta BravesLos Angeles DodgersSt. Louis Cardinals
ALTampa Bay RaysHouston AstrosChicago White SoxBoston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.20.088730.00.088.073.088-7388-73>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.9%26.7%14.2%0.0%+10.0%+22.0%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.20.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-10.0%-31.1%
3New York MetsNLE-0.40.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.2%
4Miami MarlinsNLE-0.80.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Washington NationalsNLE-0.70.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.90.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%46.1%21.0%10.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%39.5%14.9%6.3%3.0%0.0%0.0%+91.7%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC0.30.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-66.1%
4Chicago CubsNLC-1.60.171910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.30.0611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW1.30.0107550.00.0107.055.0107-55107-55>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.0%27.1%13.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.6-0.1106560.00.0106.056.0106-56106-56>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%60.5%32.1%18.9%12.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3San Diego PadresNLW-0.40.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-11.3%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-0.10.074870.00.074.087.074-8774-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-1.20.0521100.00.052.0110.052-11052-110<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Tampa Bay RaysALE1.30.0100620.00.0100.062.0100-62100-62>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%57.3%33.2%16.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Boston Red SoxALE0.60.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%51.9%22.7%9.3%3.8%+16.3%+22.1%+21.4%
3New York YankeesALE0.50.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%48.1%20.0%10.0%3.9%+23.7%+24.8%+13.4%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE1.30.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-22.5%-40.8%-11.5%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-1.90.1521100.00.052.0110.052-11052-110<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Chicago White SoxALC0.60.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%43.9%20.4%9.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Cleveland IndiansALC0.00.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Detroit TigersALC-0.10.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.70.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALC-0.40.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.00.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%56.1%27.1%12.3%0.0%0.0%+3.1%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.10.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-17.5%-4.6%-3.8%
3Oakland AthleticsALW0.40.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.5%-22.6%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.50.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Texas RangersALW-1.20.0601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%