MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2021-04-14. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.20.14884.665.488.673.498-6478-8473.0%24.2%48.8%62.0%34.1%17.3%10.5%-0.9%-9.4%
2Washington NationalsNLE0.70.23681.571.584.577.595-6775-8745.3%22.5%22.8%35.5%17.0%7.0%4.3%+4.7%-23.0%
3New York MetsNLE0.50.25378.474.683.477.693-6874-8738.3%21.3%17.0%26.9%11.5%4.6%2.2%+3.8%+6.6%
4Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.20.26675.674.481.680.491-7172-9028.7%17.8%10.9%18.9%8.6%2.9%1.1%-2.1%-20.5%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-0.30.35669.081.074.087.084-7764-973.8%3.3%0.5%1.7%0.5%<0.1%<0.1%-0.1%+3.2%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.3-0.17579.170.986.175.997-6576-8659.3%15.7%43.6%51.7%22.3%8.4%3.4%+8.7%+33.0%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.30.06678.571.584.577.595-6775-8748.4%16.8%31.6%40.0%16.9%6.6%2.4%-5.1%-15.8%
3Chicago CubsNLC0.20.15776.074.081.081.091-7171-9128.6%11.8%16.8%23.5%9.5%2.8%1.2%-6.7%-5.2%
4Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.30.17570.879.277.884.288-7468-9414.0%6.1%7.9%10.5%3.6%1.5%0.4%-0.8%-3.1%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.20.15762.387.767.394.778-8458-1040.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%+0.3%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.8-0.210294.155.9104.157.9114-4894-6899.8%1.2%98.6%99.3%65.5%45.4%31.6%-0.1%+0.7%
2San Diego PadresNLW0.30.18576.272.884.277.894-6874-8843.3%42.3%1.0%21.8%7.8%2.8%1.5%-2.6%+23.8%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.40.18469.580.577.584.588-7467-9511.4%11.1%0.3%5.4%1.9%0.6%0.3%+2.1%+7.2%
4Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.30.14871.478.675.486.686-7665-975.4%5.3%0.1%2.4%0.8%0.1%<0.1%-0.9%+1.9%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-1.10.13964.685.467.694.477-8558-1040.4%0.4%<0.1%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%+0.3%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.90.05784.265.889.272.899-6379-8371.3%26.0%45.3%58.8%32.6%17.1%7.6%-4.1%-16.7%
2Tampa Bay RaysALE0.80.05783.566.588.573.599-6378-8467.5%28.9%38.6%54.6%31.4%17.6%7.5%-5.0%+4.6%
3Boston Red SoxALE-0.30.19371.678.480.681.491-7171-9118.7%11.9%6.8%11.8%4.5%1.6%0.5%+5.9%+12.4%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE0.00.16673.676.479.682.490-7269-9316.5%10.9%5.6%9.9%3.8%2.1%0.5%+3.3%+1.4%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.20.15673.078.078.084.088-7468-9412.2%8.5%3.7%7.3%3.2%1.4%0.6%+5.2%-14.6%
AL Central
1Chicago White SoxALC0.6-0.26681.368.787.374.797-6577-8559.3%24.2%35.1%47.7%23.8%12.8%6.2%+13.3%+22.3%
2Minnesota TwinsALC0.6-0.15782.167.987.174.997-6578-8458.5%27.3%31.2%44.2%24.6%12.3%5.6%-10.7%-20.4%
3Cleveland IndiansALC0.4-0.16581.070.087.075.097-6577-8558.1%26.3%31.8%45.9%23.0%10.5%3.8%-4.0%+10.6%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.60.06470.181.976.185.986-7666-967.1%5.2%1.9%4.1%1.8%0.7%0.2%+4.3%+3.9%
5Detroit TigersALC-1.30.06663.286.869.292.878-8459-1030.3%0.3%<0.1%0.2%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.1%-0.1%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW0.3-0.36681.069.087.075.096-6677-8565.9%13.3%52.6%59.4%28.0%13.1%4.9%-0.6%-25.1%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.2-0.45780.769.385.776.396-6675-8757.6%14.4%43.2%50.9%21.8%10.3%3.6%-3.8%+18.9%
3Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.9-0.27567.682.474.687.484-7865-973.7%1.4%2.3%2.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%-4.3%+0.6%
4Seattle MarinersALW-1.1-0.26566.284.872.289.882-8062-1002.0%0.7%1.3%1.5%0.3%0.1%<0.1%-0.2%+1.1%
5Texas RangersALW-1.3-0.25764.285.869.292.879-8360-1021.3%0.7%0.6%0.9%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.6%+1.1%