MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1987-10-04. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLSt. Louis CardinalsSan Francisco Giants
ALDetroit TigersMinnesota Twins
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.30.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%45.2%21.1%0.0%+21.5%+24.0%
2New York MetsNLE1.00.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-13.6%-21.6%
3Montreal ExposNLE0.20.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-7.9%-2.4%
4Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.10.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.20.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Chicago CubsNLE-0.80.076850.00.076.085.076-8576-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW0.70.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%54.8%28.0%0.0%0.0%+11.4%
2Cincinnati RedsNLW0.00.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.8%
3Houston AstrosNLW-0.30.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.6%
4Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.40.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Atlanta BravesNLW-0.80.069920.00.069.092.069-9269-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6San Diego PadresNLW0.00.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Detroit TigersALE1.00.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%68.9%39.4%+24.6%+82.8%+33.5%
2Toronto Blue JaysALE0.90.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-24.6%-82.8%-32.8%
3Milwaukee BrewersALE0.60.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4New York YankeesALE-0.30.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
5Boston Red SoxALE0.30.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Baltimore OriolesALE-1.10.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Cleveland IndiansALE-1.30.1611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Minnesota TwinsALW-0.30.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%31.1%11.6%0.0%+0.1%+30.5%
2Kansas City RoyalsALW0.30.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-3.0%
3Oakland AthleticsALW-0.20.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-24.5%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.10.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
5Chicago White SoxALW0.30.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Texas RangersALW0.00.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
7California AngelsALW-0.10.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.7%