MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1986-10-05. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLNew York MetsHouston Astros
ALBoston Red SoxCalifornia Angels
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE1.0-0.1108540.00.0108.054.0108-54108-54>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%55.6%28.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.6-0.186750.00.086.075.086-7586-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.1-0.179820.00.079.082.079-8279-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Montreal ExposNLE-0.50.078830.00.078.083.078-8378-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago CubsNLE-0.60.070900.00.070.090.070-9070-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLE-0.30.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Houston AstrosNLW0.6-0.196660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%44.4%20.3%0.0%0.0%+4.3%
2Cincinnati RedsNLW0.5-0.186760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.5%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW0.4-0.183790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.7%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.50.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.10.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Atlanta BravesNLW-1.10.072890.00.072.089.072-8972-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE0.30.095660.00.095.066.095-6695-66>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%35.8%14.7%0.0%0.0%+16.3%
2New York YankeesALE0.20.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
3Detroit TigersALE1.00.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE0.70.086760.0-1.086.075.086-7586-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-15.8%
5Cleveland IndiansALE0.30.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersALE-1.00.07784-1.00.076.084.076-8476-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Baltimore OriolesALE-0.70.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1California AngelsALW1.2-0.192700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%64.2%36.0%0.0%0.0%+1.9%
2Texas RangersALW0.00.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.9%
3Oakland AthleticsALW-0.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.30.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago White SoxALW-0.30.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Minnesota TwinsALW-0.80.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Seattle MarinersALW-0.50.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%