MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1985-10-06. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLSt. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
ALToronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1St. Louis CardinalsNLE1.1-0.1101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%52.2%28.3%0.0%+6.6%+23.0%
2New York MetsNLE1.1-0.198640.00.098.064.098-6498-64<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-6.6%-23.0%
3Montreal ExposNLE0.00.084770.00.084.077.084-7784-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Chicago CubsNLE-0.50.077840.00.077.084.077-8477-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.10.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLE-0.60.0571040.00.057.0104.057-10457-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.10.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%47.8%24.8%0.0%+0.2%+2.2%
2Cincinnati RedsNLW0.10.089720.00.089.072.089-7289-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-1.2%
3San Diego PadresNLW0.00.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.0%
4Houston AstrosNLW-0.10.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Atlanta BravesNLW-1.10.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.90.0621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Toronto Blue JaysALE1.10.099620.00.099.062.099-6299-62>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%63.6%32.8%0.0%+0.1%+25.5%
2New York YankeesALE1.20.097640.00.097.064.097-6497-64<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-25.5%
3Detroit TigersALE0.20.084770.00.084.077.084-7784-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Baltimore OriolesALE0.30.083780.00.083.078.083-7883-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Boston Red SoxALE0.40.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.90.071900.00.071.090.071-9071-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Cleveland IndiansALE-0.70.0601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Kansas City RoyalsALW0.30.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%36.4%14.1%0.0%+68.4%+43.6%
2California AngelsALW0.20.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-68.4%-43.4%
3Chicago White SoxALW0.00.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Minnesota TwinsALW-0.40.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-0.10.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
6Seattle MarinersALW-0.40.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Texas RangersALW-1.20.062990.00.062.099.062-9962-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%