MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1984-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLChicago CubsSan Diego Padres
ALDetroit TigersKansas City Royals
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Chicago CubsNLE0.60.096650.00.096.065.096-6596-65>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%52.3%26.9%0.0%0.0%+6.3%
2New York MetsNLE0.20.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.5%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.10.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.00.081810.0-1.081.080.081-8081-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.8%
5Montreal ExposNLE0.10.078830.00.078.083.078-8378-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.50.07587-1.00.074.087.074-8774-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Diego PadresNLW0.30.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%47.7%22.5%0.0%0.0%+0.5%
2Atlanta BravesNLW-0.60.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Houston AstrosNLW0.40.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
4Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.30.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLW-0.60.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.70.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Detroit TigersALE0.80.0104580.00.0104.058.0104-58104-58>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%59.1%32.6%0.0%0.0%+0.9%
2Toronto Blue JaysALE0.00.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.9%
3New York YankeesALE0.90.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Boston Red SoxALE0.60.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE0.20.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Cleveland IndiansALE0.30.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Milwaukee BrewersALE-0.70.067940.00.067.094.067-9467-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Kansas City RoyalsALW0.00.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%40.9%18.0%0.0%+53.9%+76.7%
2Minnesota TwinsALW-0.10.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-39.8%-60.5%
3California AngelsALW-0.10.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-14.1%-14.7%
4Oakland AthleticsALW-0.50.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5Seattle MarinersALW-0.60.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Chicago White SoxALW-0.50.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.2%
7Texas RangersALW-0.30.069920.00.069.092.069-9269-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%