MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1983-10-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLLos Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies
ALChicago White SoxBaltimore Orioles
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%56.6%21.3%0.0%+4.3%+65.8%
2Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.80.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-4.3%-33.0%
3Montreal ExposNLE0.20.082800.0-1.082.079.082-7982-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-22.5%
4St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.30.179830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-10.2%
5Chicago CubsNLE-0.30.171910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6New York MetsNLE-0.60.16894-1.00.067.094.067-9467-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.20.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%43.4%12.7%0.0%+4.5%+40.0%
2Atlanta BravesNLW0.50.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-4.5%-35.9%
3Houston AstrosNLW0.10.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.1%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.20.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Francisco GiantsNLW0.10.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Cincinnati RedsNLW-0.50.174880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.00.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%46.3%29.6%0.0%0.0%+35.6%
2Detroit TigersALE0.70.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-18.2%
3New York YankeesALE0.70.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-10.4%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE0.20.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
5Milwaukee BrewersALE0.50.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-6.3%
6Boston Red SoxALE-0.20.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Cleveland IndiansALE-0.50.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Chicago White SoxALW1.3-0.199630.00.099.063.099-6399-63>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%53.7%36.4%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.60.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Texas RangersALW0.00.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Oakland AthleticsALW-0.40.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALW-0.80.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6California AngelsALW-1.00.170920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Seattle MarinersALW-0.90.0601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%