MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1982-10-03. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLSt. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves
ALMilwaukee BrewersCalifornia Angels
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.4-0.192700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%57.3%23.1%0.0%+0.1%+26.5%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.00.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-18.6%
3Montreal ExposNLE0.4-0.186760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.4%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.5-0.184780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.5%
5Chicago CubsNLE0.10.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6New York MetsNLE-0.80.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Atlanta BravesNLW-0.10.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%42.7%13.7%+14.0%+82.4%+36.3%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.7-0.188740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-14.0%-60.0%-33.2%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW0.30.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-22.4%-0.3%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.40.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.8%
5Houston AstrosNLW-0.10.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Cincinnati RedsNLW-0.90.0611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Milwaukee BrewersALE1.4-0.195670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%56.4%37.7%+44.4%+12.0%+18.3%
2Baltimore OriolesALE0.40.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-44.4%-12.0%-11.2%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.10.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.0%
4Detroit TigersALE0.20.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5New York YankeesALE-0.10.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.20.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Cleveland IndiansALE-0.80.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1California AngelsALW0.9-0.193690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%43.6%25.5%0.0%+3.8%+65.3%
2Kansas City RoyalsALW0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-3.8%-64.4%
3Chicago White SoxALW0.40.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.9%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.40.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-0.80.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Texas RangersALW-0.80.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Minnesota TwinsALW-0.40.0601020.00.060.0102.060-10260-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%