MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1988-10-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLNew York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers
ALOakland AthleticsBoston Red Sox
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE1.00.0100600.00.0100.060.0100-60100-60>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%60.1%30.3%0.0%0.0%+0.8%
2Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.20.085750.00.085.075.085-7585-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.7%
3Montreal ExposNLE0.30.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Chicago CubsNLE-0.50.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.60.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-1.00.065960.00.065.096.065-9665-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.30.094670.00.094.067.094-6794-67>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%39.9%16.5%0.0%0.0%+9.2%
2Cincinnati RedsNLW0.50.087740.00.087.074.087-7487-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.9%
3San Diego PadresNLW0.70.083780.00.083.078.083-7883-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW0.30.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.1%
5Houston AstrosNLW-0.30.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.0%
6Atlanta BravesNLW-0.90.0541060.00.054.0106.054-10654-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE1.00.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%50.9%27.3%0.0%+0.1%+59.2%
2Detroit TigersALE0.10.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-55.0%
3Milwaukee BrewersALE0.20.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE0.40.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
5New York YankeesALE-0.70.085760.00.085.076.085-7685-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.4%
6Cleveland IndiansALE-0.80.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Baltimore OriolesALE-0.90.0541070.00.054.0107.054-10754-107<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.90.0104580.00.0104.058.0104-58104-58>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%49.1%26.0%0.0%0.0%+4.5%
2Minnesota TwinsALW0.90.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.5%
3Kansas City RoyalsALW0.10.084770.00.084.077.084-7784-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4California AngelsALW0.00.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago White SoxALW-0.50.071900.00.071.090.071-9071-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Texas RangersALW-0.60.070910.00.070.091.070-9170-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Seattle MarinersALW-0.30.068930.00.068.093.068-9368-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%