MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1945-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Chicago Cubs | NL | 1.5 | -0.1 | 98 | 56 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 56.0 | 98-56 | 98-56 | >99.9% | 69.2% | 0.0% | +19.6% | +32.5% | ||||||
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | 1.2 | -0.1 | 95 | 59 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 59.0 | 95-59 | 95-59 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -19.6% | -32.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Brooklyn Dodgers | NL | 0.4 | -0.1 | 87 | 67 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 67.0 | 87-67 | 87-67 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% | ||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | 0.2 | 0.0 | 82 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 72.0 | 82-72 | 82-72 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | New York Giants | NL | -0.4 | 0.0 | 78 | 74 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 74.0 | 78-74 | 78-74 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Boston Braves | NL | -0.1 | 0.0 | 67 | 85 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 85.0 | 67-85 | 67-85 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 7 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | -1.0 | 0.1 | 61 | 93 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61.0 | 93.0 | 61-93 | 61-93 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 8 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | -1.8 | 0.1 | 46 | 108 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 108.0 | 46-108 | 46-108 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Detroit Tigers | AL | 0.5 | 0.0 | 88 | 65 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 65.0 | 88-65 | 88-65 | >99.9% | 30.8% | 0.0% | +11.4% | +56.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Washington Nationals | AL | 0.8 | -0.1 | 87 | 67 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 67.0 | 87-67 | 87-67 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -11.4% | -37.1% | ||||||
| 3 | New York Yankees | AL | 0.1 | 0.0 | 81 | 71 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 71.0 | 81-71 | 81-71 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.3% | ||||||
| 4 | St. Louis Browns | AL | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 70.0 | 81-70 | 81-70 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -8.7% | ||||||
| 5 | Cleveland Indians | AL | 0.3 | 0.0 | 73 | 72 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 72.0 | 73-72 | 73-72 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -3.8% | ||||||
| 6 | Boston Red Sox | AL | -0.6 | 0.1 | 71 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 83.0 | 71-83 | 71-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 7 | Chicago White Sox | AL | -0.2 | 0.0 | 71 | 78 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 78.0 | 71-78 | 71-78 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 8 | Philadelphia Athletics | AL | -0.8 | 0.1 | 52 | 98 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 98.0 | 52-98 | 52-98 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||


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