MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLLos Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia PhilliesMilwaukee BrewersSan Diego PadresArizona DiamondbacksAtlanta Braves
ALNew York YankeesCleveland GuardiansHouston AstrosBaltimore OriolesKansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.30.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%44.1%20.5%10.3%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2Atlanta BravesNLE0.60.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%48.7%25.0%12.2%7.2%+26.8%+73.8%+26.7%
3New York MetsNLE0.90.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%47.6%26.7%14.5%9.3%+23.4%+12.1%+71.7%
4Washington NationalsNLE-0.60.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-1.00.1621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.80.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%52.4%29.2%14.5%8.9%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.00.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.3%
3Chicago CubsNLC0.70.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-13.6%
4Cincinnati RedsNLC0.00.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.30.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.70.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.7%23.3%13.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2San Diego PadresNLW0.80.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%51.3%26.3%15.0%8.4%0.0%0.0%+7.5%
3Arizona DiamondbacksNLW1.00.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-50.2%-85.9%-90.9%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW0.40.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.5%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-1.30.1611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.20.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%52.6%22.9%9.8%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2Baltimore OriolesALE0.00.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%50.2%22.1%9.7%3.9%0.0%+0.1%+1.2%
3Boston Red SoxALE-0.30.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-14.5%
4Tampa Bay RaysALE0.00.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.7%-1.4%
5Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.30.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
AL Central
1Cleveland GuardiansALC0.10.092690.40.692.469.693-6992-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%43.2%22.4%7.8%0.0%0.0%+2.5%
2Kansas City RoyalsALC0.10.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%49.8%25.3%12.3%5.2%0.0%+35.9%+13.4%
3Detroit TigersALC0.30.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%46.1%25.1%13.9%6.1%0.0%+22.7%+90.0%
4Minnesota TwinsALC0.00.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-39.9%-83.2%
5Chicago White SoxALC-1.70.1411210.00.041.0121.041-12141-121<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW0.70.088730.60.488.673.489-7388-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%53.9%31.7%18.8%10.0%0.0%+0.1%+2.5%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.40.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-18.0%-10.0%
3Texas RangersALW-0.80.178840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Oakland AthleticsALW-0.669930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Los Angeles AngelsALW-1.10.163990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%