MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2012-10-03. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLWashington NationalsCincinnati RedsSan Francisco GiantsAtlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals
ALNew York YankeesOakland AthleticsDetroit TigersTexas RangersBaltimore Orioles
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Washington NationalsNLE0.90.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.4%30.8%15.4%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Atlanta BravesNLE0.70.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%52.1%25.6%14.6%7.2%0.0%0.0%+6.1%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.10.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%
4New York MetsNLE-0.40.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-0.70.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Cincinnati RedsNLC0.20.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%46.2%19.2%7.8%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.40.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%47.9%20.9%10.6%4.6%0.0%+9.5%+38.5%
3Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.40.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-6.3%-0.5%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.30.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-18.7%
5Chicago CubsNLC-1.10.0611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Houston AstrosNLC-1.80.1551070.00.055.0107.055-10755-107<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW0.50.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.8%24.8%11.0%0.0%0.0%+3.5%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.00.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-3.0%-28.2%
3Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.30.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-0.5%
4San Diego PadresNLW0.00.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.80.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.90.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%57.7%27.3%14.7%0.0%+0.5%+11.8%
2Baltimore OriolesALE0.20.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%48.7%20.1%7.5%3.2%0.0%+16.0%+60.1%
3Tampa Bay RaysALE1.00.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-10.1%-57.8%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.70.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Boston Red SoxALE-0.70.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Detroit TigersALC0.60.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%40.7%20.5%10.3%0.0%+22.2%+55.6%
2Chicago White SoxALC0.30.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-22.2%-67.6%
3Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.40.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Cleveland IndiansALC-1.30.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALC-0.60.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW1.30.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%59.3%35.8%21.7%0.0%+12.9%+12.3%
2Texas RangersALW0.40.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%51.3%22.2%8.9%4.1%0.0%+1.1%+1.6%
3Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW0.70.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-20.4%-15.9%
4Seattle MarinersALW0.00.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%