MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2011-09-28. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE1.30.0102600.00.0102.060.0102-60102-60>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%67.5%43.1%22.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Atlanta BravesNLE-0.10.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-40.4%-67.5%-99.4%
3Washington NationalsNLE-0.20.080810.00.080.081.080-8180-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4New York MetsNLE0.10.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Florida MarlinsNLE-0.672900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.40.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.3%20.7%8.3%0.0%+0.0%+0.1%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.00.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%32.5%14.3%4.9%+40.4%+69.1%+99.6%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.20.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.20.172900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago CubsNLC-0.50.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Houston AstrosNLC-1.30.1561060.00.056.0106.056-10656-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.50.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%51.7%22.0%8.7%0.0%+0.3%+5.4%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.20.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-2.0%-5.4%
3Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.50.082790.00.082.079.082-7982-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-0.40.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5San Diego PadresNLW0.00.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.50.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%62.6%33.3%19.5%0.0%0.0%+0.8%
2Tampa Bay RaysALE1.10.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%52.3%28.3%16.0%+54.8%+90.1%+99.0%
3Boston Red SoxALE1.10.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-54.8%-84.9%-99.7%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.20.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.70.169930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Detroit TigersALC0.40.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%37.4%14.0%6.3%0.0%0.0%+17.5%
2Cleveland IndiansALC-0.70.180820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.1%
3Chicago White SoxALC-0.60.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-14.5%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC0.10.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALC-1.00.163990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Texas RangersALW1.30.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%47.7%24.5%13.6%0.0%+0.4%+10.7%
2Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW0.40.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-5.6%-10.7%
3Oakland AthleticsALW0.10.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.80.167950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%