MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2010-10-03. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLPhiladelphia PhilliesSan Francisco GiantsCincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves
ALTampa Bay RaysMinnesota TwinsTexas RangersNew York Yankees
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.80.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.4%28.3%14.9%0.0%0.0%+21.8%
2Atlanta BravesNLE0.40.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%46.4%21.2%10.0%+49.4%+50.2%+4.1%
3Florida MarlinsNLE-0.20.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.9%
4New York MetsNLE-0.30.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Washington NationalsNLE-0.70.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Cincinnati RedsNLC0.50.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%46.6%22.9%10.9%0.0%0.0%+1.2%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.10.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-8.8%
3Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.20.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Houston AstrosNLC-0.50.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago CubsNLC-0.70.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.40.0571050.00.057.0105.057-10557-105<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW0.70.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.6%27.6%14.1%+4.6%+17.0%+68.0%
2San Diego PadresNLW0.10.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-54.1%-66.6%-80.3%
3Colorado RockiesNLW0.10.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.6%-2.6%
4Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.30.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.5%
5Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.50.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Tampa Bay RaysALE0.70.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%49.7%25.6%12.9%0.0%0.0%+2.1%
2New York YankeesALE0.80.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%51.6%25.4%12.8%0.0%+0.0%+1.2%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.60.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.2%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE0.20.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.30.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.60.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.4%23.6%11.4%0.0%0.0%+14.3%
2Chicago White SoxALC0.70.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-14.4%
3Detroit TigersALC0.20.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Cleveland IndiansALC-0.50.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.10.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Texas RangersALW0.70.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%50.3%25.4%13.1%0.0%0.0%+1.3%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.50.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.1%
3Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW-0.10.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.90.0611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%