MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2009-10-06. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.50.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%50.0%24.6%10.2%0.0%+0.0%+2.4%
2Florida MarlinsNLE0.3-0.187750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.7%
3Atlanta BravesNLE1.00.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-5.7%-1.9%
4New York MetsNLE-1.00.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Washington NationalsNLE-0.90.0591030.00.059.0103.059-10359-103<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.30.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%43.6%19.9%7.3%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Chicago CubsNLC-0.20.083780.00.083.078.083-7883-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
3Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.90.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.70.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Houston AstrosNLC-1.10.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.60.162990.00.062.099.062-9962-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.80.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%56.4%30.4%13.7%0.0%0.0%+3.0%
2Colorado RockiesNLW0.60.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%50.0%25.1%10.2%0.0%+5.7%+26.4%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW0.20.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-26.1%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.70.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.50.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.7-0.1103590.00.0103.059.0103-59103-59>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%65.4%36.4%23.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Boston Red SoxALE1.00.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%45.4%21.5%11.6%0.0%0.0%+12.7%
3Tampa Bay RaysALE0.20.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.9%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE0.30.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.30.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.30.087760.00.087.076.087-7687-76>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%34.6%13.1%5.8%+45.5%+76.5%+94.6%
2Detroit TigersALC-0.40.086770.00.086.077.086-7786-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-45.5%-76.5%-92.9%
3Chicago White SoxALC0.30.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.7%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.10.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cleveland IndiansALC-0.70.065970.00.065.097.065-9765-97<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW1.50.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%54.6%29.0%17.8%0.0%0.0%+6.8%
2Texas RangersALW0.50.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-18.5%
3Seattle MarinersALW0.00.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Oakland AthleticsALW0.70.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%