MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2013-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLSt. Louis CardinalsAtlanta BravesLos Angeles DodgersPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
ALBoston Red SoxOakland AthleticsDetroit TigersCleveland IndiansTampa Bay Rays
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.50.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%47.0%22.6%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Washington NationalsNLE0.30.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.9%
3New York MetsNLE-0.30.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-1.10.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-0.50.0621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.90.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%54.9%29.3%14.2%0.0%0.0%+0.3%
2Pittsburgh PiratesNLC0.40.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%48.9%21.6%9.7%4.1%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC0.50.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%51.1%23.6%11.2%4.8%0.0%0.0%+3.3%
4Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.10.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago CubsNLC-0.70.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.70.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.0%27.2%13.2%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.40.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.0%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.50.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4San Diego PadresNLW-0.60.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.90.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE1.30.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%59.1%32.3%18.5%0.0%0.0%+0.6%
2Tampa Bay RaysALE0.30.092710.00.092.071.092-7192-71>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%47.7%18.3%7.7%3.5%+52.3%+12.1%+22.5%
3New York YankeesALE-0.10.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.4%-10.4%
4Baltimore OriolesALE0.50.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-8.2%
5Toronto Blue JaysALE0.00.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Detroit TigersALC0.90.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%49.9%24.3%13.1%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2Cleveland IndiansALC0.70.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%52.3%22.6%10.5%5.4%0.0%+19.1%+90.0%
3Kansas City RoyalsALC0.50.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-3.0%-1.8%
4Minnesota TwinsALC-1.40.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago White SoxALC-0.70.063990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.90.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%50.1%25.2%13.3%0.0%0.0%+4.7%
2Texas RangersALW0.50.091720.00.091.072.091-7291-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-52.3%-27.7%-97.5%
3Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW0.20.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.70.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Houston AstrosALW-1.40.0511110.00.051.0111.051-11151-111<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%