MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2008-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.20.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%49.5%24.3%8.8%0.0%+1.7%+51.3%
2New York MetsNLE0.30.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-72.1%-53.4%
3Florida MarlinsNLE-0.2-0.184770.00.084.077.084-7784-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
4Atlanta BravesNLE-1.00.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Washington NationalsNLE-1.50.1591020.00.059.0102.059-10259-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Chicago CubsNLC0.60.097640.00.097.064.097-6497-64>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%58.4%31.9%13.1%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.20.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%50.5%25.3%9.7%0.0%+70.5%+4.0%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.00.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.8%
4Houston AstrosNLC-0.50.086750.00.086.075.086-7586-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.00.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.40.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.10.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%41.6%18.5%6.2%0.0%+1.7%+67.7%
2Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.70.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.7%-64.4%
3Colorado RockiesNLW-0.60.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.2%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-1.20.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5San Diego PadresNLW-1.00.063990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Tampa Bay RaysALE1.20.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%59.6%30.8%19.9%0.0%0.0%+0.3%
2Boston Red SoxALE1.5-0.195670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%58.0%33.3%22.2%0.0%0.0%+11.7%
3New York YankeesALE1.20.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.9%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE1.20.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.10.068930.00.068.093.068-9368-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Chicago White SoxALC0.60.089740.00.089.074.089-7489-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%40.4%16.4%8.7%+54.5%+28.1%+42.0%
2Minnesota TwinsALC1.40.088750.00.088.075.088-7588-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-54.5%-28.1%-52.6%
3Cleveland IndiansALC0.70.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC0.10.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALC0.20.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW0.80.0100620.00.0100.062.0100-62100-62>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%42.0%19.5%11.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Texas RangersALW-0.20.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Oakland AthleticsALW-0.50.075860.00.075.086.075-8675-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.40.0611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%