MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2007-10-01. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.60.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%41.8%24.9%10.7%0.0%+55.6%+61.0%
2New York MetsNLE-0.10.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-94.9%-84.8%
3Atlanta BravesNLE0.60.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.2%-5.4%
4Washington NationalsNLE-0.50.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Florida MarlinsNLE-1.10.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Chicago CubsNLC0.00.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%55.4%20.8%7.2%0.0%+3.1%+40.0%
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.00.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-3.1%-18.1%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.70.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-22.3%
4Houston AstrosNLC-0.70.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.60.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.90.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.50.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%44.6%14.4%4.2%0.0%+4.0%+33.3%
2Colorado RockiesNLW1.30.090730.00.090.073.090-7390-73>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%58.2%40.0%20.9%+42.8%+76.0%+89.4%
3San Diego PadresNLW0.10.089740.00.089.074.089-7489-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-42.8%-39.5%-85.1%
4Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.8%
5San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.60.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE1.30.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%60.8%32.4%19.5%0.0%0.0%+0.5%
2New York YankeesALE1.50.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%56.2%30.5%18.3%0.0%+0.0%+28.1%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.80.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.7%
4Baltimore OriolesALE-0.90.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-0.566960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC0.70.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%43.8%20.8%10.9%0.0%0.0%+5.6%
2Detroit TigersALC0.40.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-15.6%
3Minnesota TwinsALC0.20.179830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.7%
4Chicago White SoxALC-0.70.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC0.30.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW0.50.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%39.2%16.3%8.2%0.0%0.0%+0.8%
2Seattle MarinersALW-0.20.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-17.0%
3Oakland AthleticsALW-0.40.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Texas RangersALW0.30.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%