MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2006-10-01. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLNew York MetsSan Diego PadresSt. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
ALNew York YankeesMinnesota TwinsOakland AthleticsDetroit Tigers
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE0.20.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%54.7%31.9%10.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.10.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-71.5%-27.7%
3Atlanta BravesNLE0.10.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.6%
4Florida MarlinsNLE-0.20.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-10.2%
5Washington NationalsNLE-1.40.171910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.70.083780.00.083.078.083-7883-78>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%44.5%18.0%4.2%0.0%+4.7%+6.3%
2Houston AstrosNLC0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-4.3%-7.5%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.20.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.4%-19.4%
4Milwaukee BrewersNLC-1.00.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.20.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Chicago CubsNLC-1.00.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Diego PadresNLW-0.10.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%47.9%52.1%>99.9%52.9%28.1%8.2%0.0%+9.2%+67.3%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.50.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%52.1%47.9%>99.9%47.9%22.1%5.4%0.0%+62.4%+7.8%
3Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.90.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.4%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-1.10.076850.00.076.085.076-8576-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-11.1%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.30.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.20.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%47.5%20.7%14.1%0.0%0.0%+0.8%
2Toronto Blue JaysALE0.60.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.10.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.1%
4Baltimore OriolesALE-0.40.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-0.30.4611010.00.061.0101.061-10161-101<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC1.9-0.196660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%64.4%39.4%30.8%0.0%+0.1%+36.2%
2Detroit TigersALC1.30.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%52.5%23.9%16.7%0.0%0.0%+1.0%
3Chicago White SoxALC0.80.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-35.9%
4Cleveland IndiansALC1.00.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC0.00.0621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.80.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%35.6%15.9%10.1%0.0%+0.5%+1.4%
2Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW0.90.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.5%-1.2%
3Texas RangersALW0.80.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4Seattle MarinersALW0.20.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%