MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1979-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
ALBaltimore OriolesCalifornia Angels
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Pittsburgh PiratesNLE1.0-0.198640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%53.9%28.5%+26.4%+69.8%+26.1%
2Montreal ExposNLE0.70.095650.00.095.065.095-6595-65<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-26.4%-69.8%-23.9%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.00.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
4Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.40.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago CubsNLE0.40.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.5%
6New York MetsNLE-0.70.063990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Cincinnati RedsNLW0.60.090710.00.090.071.090-7190-71>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%46.1%22.5%0.0%+12.8%+27.6%
2Houston AstrosNLW-0.20.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-12.8%-27.6%
3Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.20.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.80.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Diego PadresNLW-0.40.068930.00.068.093.068-9368-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Atlanta BravesNLW-0.30.066940.00.066.094.066-9466-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.00.0102570.00.0102.057.0102-57102-57>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%59.5%31.7%0.0%0.0%+2.1%
2Milwaukee BrewersALE0.60.095660.00.095.066.095-6695-66<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.40.091690.00.091.069.091-6991-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.7%
4New York YankeesALE0.30.089710.00.089.071.089-7189-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALE0.30.085760.00.085.076.085-7685-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Cleveland IndiansALE-0.10.081800.00.081.080.081-8081-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Toronto Blue JaysALE-1.30.0531090.00.053.0109.053-10953-109<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1California AngelsALW0.40.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%40.5%17.3%0.0%+10.2%+51.7%
2Kansas City RoyalsALW0.30.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-9.5%-38.7%
3Texas RangersALW0.40.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
4Minnesota TwinsALW0.30.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.6%-12.7%
5Chicago White SoxALW-0.20.073870.00.073.087.073-8773-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Seattle MarinersALW-0.80.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Oakland AthleticsALW-1.50.1541080.00.054.0108.054-10854-108<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%