MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1978-10-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLLos Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies
ALNew York YankeesKansas City Royals
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.60.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%47.0%21.4%0.0%+3.8%+17.1%
2Pittsburgh PiratesNLE0.60.088730.00.088.073.088-7388-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-3.8%-14.1%
3Chicago CubsNLE-0.70.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.9%
4Montreal ExposNLE-0.10.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5St. Louis CardinalsNLE-0.10.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6New York MetsNLE-0.50.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.80.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%53.0%26.0%0.0%0.0%+19.3%
2Cincinnati RedsNLW-0.10.092690.00.092.069.092-6992-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.20.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-18.8%
4San Diego PadresNLW0.40.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Houston AstrosNLW-0.20.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Atlanta BravesNLW-0.60.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.10.0100630.00.0100.063.0100-63100-63>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%59.4%33.9%+45.2%+21.2%+91.9%
2Boston Red SoxALE0.50.099640.00.099.064.099-6499-64<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-45.2%-21.2%-88.2%
3Milwaukee BrewersALE1.00.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.2%
4Baltimore OriolesALE0.50.090710.00.090.071.090-7190-71<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5Detroit TigersALE0.60.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
6Cleveland IndiansALE-0.10.069900.00.069.090.069-9069-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.90.0591020.00.059.0102.059-10259-102<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Kansas City RoyalsALW0.50.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%40.6%18.7%0.0%+0.0%+26.8%
2Texas RangersALW0.50.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.6%
3California AngelsALW0.20.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-23.2%
4Minnesota TwinsALW-0.20.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago White SoxALW-1.10.071900.00.071.090.071-9071-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Oakland AthleticsALW-1.40.169930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Seattle MarinersALW-1.30.0561040.00.056.0104.056-10456-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%