MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2018-10-01. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLMilwaukee BrewersLos Angeles DodgersAtlanta BravesChicago CubsColorado Rockies
ALBoston Red SoxHouston AstrosCleveland IndiansNew York YankeesOakland Athletics
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.50.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%34.7%16.5%6.8%0.0%0.0%+16.1%
2Washington NationalsNLE0.10.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.2%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.70.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-22.8%
4New York MetsNLE0.00.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-1.20.063980.00.063.098.063-9863-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.70.096670.00.096.067.096-6796-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%51.1%20.5%8.8%0.0%+0.5%+28.9%
2Chicago CubsNLC0.30.095680.00.095.068.095-6895-68>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%46.8%21.2%7.6%3.0%0.0%+0.1%+0.7%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.60.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-59.3%-76.9%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC0.10.082790.00.082.079.082-7982-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.40.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.7-0.192710.00.092.071.092-7192-71>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%65.3%43.4%25.7%0.0%+5.9%+25.0%
2Colorado RockiesNLW0.90.091720.00.091.072.091-7291-72>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%53.2%27.7%12.0%5.2%0.0%+52.9%+73.0%
3Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.30.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-41.4%
4San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.40.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5San Diego PadresNLW-0.90.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE1.00.0108540.00.0108.054.0108-54108-54>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%50.3%22.4%10.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2New York YankeesALE0.70.0100620.00.0100.062.0100-62100-62>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%47.7%22.8%9.4%4.0%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
3Tampa Bay RaysALE0.70.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.8%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.90.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-1.70.1471150.00.047.0115.047-11547-115<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC1.00.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.1%23.5%11.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Minnesota TwinsALC-0.50.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Detroit TigersALC-1.40.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Chicago White SoxALC-1.20.0621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.00.0581040.00.058.0104.058-10458-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.40.0103590.00.0103.059.0103-59103-59>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%54.9%32.1%17.9%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2Oakland AthleticsALW1.10.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%52.3%26.9%12.7%6.4%0.0%0.0%+4.2%
3Seattle MarinersALW-0.40.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.6%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.20.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Texas RangersALW-0.30.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%