MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2017-10-01. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLLos Angeles DodgersWashington NationalsChicago CubsArizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies
ALCleveland IndiansHouston AstrosBoston Red SoxNew York YankeesMinnesota Twins
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Washington NationalsNLE0.50.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%46.5%22.8%8.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Miami MarlinsNLE-0.50.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.3%
3Atlanta BravesNLE-0.50.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4New York MetsNLE-1.10.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.30.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Chicago CubsNLC0.90.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.5%28.7%11.0%0.0%+0.1%+8.7%
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.10.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-13.8%-31.1%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.50.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-8.7%-17.5%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.30.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.00.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.70.0104580.00.0104.058.0104-58104-58>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%55.6%28.4%10.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.70.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%55.3%26.7%13.4%4.9%0.0%0.0%+0.9%
3Colorado RockiesNLW-0.20.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%44.7%17.7%6.7%1.9%0.0%+22.4%+41.4%
4San Diego PadresNLW-1.00.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.80.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE1.10.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%54.3%20.9%11.9%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2New York YankeesALE0.90.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%53.1%17.5%8.9%4.7%0.0%0.0%+19.5%
3Tampa Bay RaysALE0.00.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.2%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.50.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.30.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-14.3%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC2.2-0.1102600.00.0102.060.0102-60102-60>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%69.4%48.6%35.8%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2Minnesota TwinsALC0.60.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%46.9%13.2%5.7%2.7%0.0%+1.2%+53.9%
3Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.30.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-9.1%
4Chicago White SoxALC-0.80.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALC-1.30.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW0.80.0101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.7%15.9%8.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Los Angeles AngelsALW0.50.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.1%-25.5%
3Seattle MarinersALW-0.20.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.3%
4Texas RangersALW-0.20.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-15.1%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-0.20.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%