MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2016-10-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLChicago CubsWashington NationalsLos Angeles DodgersSan Francisco GiantsNew York Mets
ALTexas RangersCleveland IndiansBoston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Washington NationalsNLE0.40.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%53.8%25.8%11.8%0.0%0.0%+0.0%
2New York MetsNLE0.00.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%47.4%18.9%8.4%3.3%0.0%+9.7%+78.6%
3Miami MarlinsNLE-0.40.079820.00.079.082.079-8279-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-13.8%
4Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-1.40.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Atlanta BravesNLE-0.60.068930.00.068.093.068-9368-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Chicago CubsNLC0.80.0103580.00.0103.058.0103-58103-58>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%57.5%32.8%16.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.20.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-12.3%-49.3%-57.7%
3Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.50.078830.00.078.083.078-8378-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-21.7%
4Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.40.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.60.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.20.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%46.2%20.8%8.9%0.0%0.0%+4.1%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW0.30.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%52.6%23.6%12.2%5.5%+12.3%+39.8%+15.4%
3Colorado RockiesNLW-0.30.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.9%
4Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-1.10.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Diego PadresNLW-0.50.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE1.10.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%54.9%33.4%19.9%0.0%0.0%+13.9%
2Baltimore OriolesALE0.30.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%45.2%24.5%10.0%4.8%0.0%+29.6%+65.2%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE1.00.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%54.8%34.6%17.8%10.0%0.0%+5.2%+9.3%
4New York YankeesALE0.30.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.3%
5Tampa Bay RaysALE0.00.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC0.70.094670.00.094.067.094-6794-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.1%24.8%13.1%0.0%0.0%+2.4%
2Detroit TigersALC0.40.086750.00.086.075.086-7586-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-24.2%-55.7%
3Kansas City RoyalsALC0.00.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.4%
4Chicago White SoxALC-0.10.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALC-0.40.0591030.00.059.0103.059-10359-103<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Texas RangersALW-0.10.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%40.9%14.1%6.0%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.30.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-7.0%-3.4%
3Houston AstrosALW0.50.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-3.7%-22.2%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW0.50.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-0.20.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%