MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2015-10-04. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLSt. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsPittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
ALKansas City RoyalsToronto Blue JaysTexas RangersNew York YankeesHouston Astros
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%56.0%28.0%10.6%0.0%0.0%+10.7%
2Washington NationalsNLE0.30.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-14.2%
3Miami MarlinsNLE-0.80.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Atlanta BravesNLE-1.80.16795-1.00.066.095.066-9566-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-1.20.063990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.20.0100620.0-1.0100.061.0100-61100-61>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.2%24.8%8.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Pittsburgh PiratesNLC0.30.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%48.7%24.9%13.3%5.0%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
3Chicago CubsNLC0.40.097650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%51.3%27.0%14.9%5.8%0.0%0.0%+5.7%
4Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.50.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.00.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW-0.20.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%44.0%19.0%5.9%0.0%+0.6%+5.9%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW0.20.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.6%-8.0%
3Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.30.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4San Diego PadresNLW-1.10.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.90.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Toronto Blue JaysALE1.8-0.193690.00.093.069.093-6993-69>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%69.1%43.8%31.4%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2New York YankeesALE0.90.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%47.9%24.9%10.9%6.4%0.0%+0.0%+2.1%
3Baltimore OriolesALE0.40.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.6%
4Tampa Bay RaysALE0.40.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.9%
5Boston Red SoxALE0.90.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
AL Central
1Kansas City RoyalsALC0.60.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%45.5%18.6%10.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Minnesota TwinsALC0.20.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-8.0%-22.1%
3Cleveland IndiansALC0.60.081800.00.081.080.081-8081-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-5.6%
4Chicago White SoxALC0.10.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.7%
5Detroit TigersALC-0.70.074870.00.074.087.074-8774-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Texas RangersALW0.20.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%30.9%12.4%6.3%0.0%+4.9%+46.9%
2Houston AstrosALW1.10.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%52.1%29.6%14.2%9.0%+8.6%+32.0%+2.6%
3Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW0.10.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-8.6%-28.8%-18.4%
4Seattle MarinersALW-0.10.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.3%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-0.20.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%