MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2014-09-28. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLWashington NationalsLos Angeles DodgersSt. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh PiratesSan Francisco Giants
ALLos Angeles Angels of AnaheimBaltimore OriolesDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsOakland Athletics
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Washington NationalsNLE0.70.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%59.4%34.2%15.7%0.0%0.0%+0.5%
2Atlanta BravesNLE-0.40.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-44.7%
3New York MetsNLE0.00.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Miami MarlinsNLE-0.70.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.5%
5Philadelphia PhilliesNLE-0.30.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC-0.10.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%41.5%17.1%5.7%0.0%0.0%+47.6%
2Pittsburgh PiratesNLC0.30.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%54.6%24.3%12.2%4.8%0.0%+0.4%+55.7%
3Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.40.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.2%-81.7%
4Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.20.076860.00.076.086.076-8676-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.7%
5Chicago CubsNLC-0.90.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.60.094680.00.094.068.094-6894-68>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%58.5%29.7%12.8%0.0%0.0%+2.0%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.30.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%45.4%16.3%6.7%2.0%0.0%+0.8%+22.6%
3San Diego PadresNLW-0.30.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.6%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-0.80.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.90.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Baltimore OriolesALE1.30.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%62.6%35.6%22.7%0.0%0.0%+0.6%
2New York YankeesALE0.30.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-5.7%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.10.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
4Tampa Bay RaysALE0.50.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5Boston Red SoxALE-0.30.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Detroit TigersALC0.50.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%37.4%15.9%8.1%0.0%+2.0%+47.8%
2Kansas City RoyalsALC0.50.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%50.3%20.8%8.8%4.6%0.0%+31.6%+25.4%
3Cleveland IndiansALC0.40.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-5.7%-11.3%
4Chicago White SoxALC-0.50.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Minnesota TwinsALC-0.20.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW1.20.098640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%58.5%30.9%19.1%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.50.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%49.7%20.6%8.7%4.6%+10.2%+9.9%+0.8%
3Seattle MarinersALW0.70.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-10.2%-37.6%-57.2%
4Houston AstrosALW-0.40.070920.00.070.092.070-9270-92<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Texas RangersALW-0.70.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%