MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2005-10-02. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.20.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%42.5%22.1%8.0%0.0%+0.0%+9.6%
2Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.40.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-10.5%-24.1%-42.3%
3New York MetsNLE0.30.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-10.1%
4Florida MarlinsNLE-0.70.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-8.0%
5Washington NationalsNLE-0.50.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-2.8%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.50.0100620.00.0100.062.0100-62100-62>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%70.3%35.2%14.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Houston AstrosNLC0.60.089730.00.089.073.089-7389-73>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%57.5%34.8%15.6%+10.5%+24.1%+53.8%
3Milwaukee BrewersNLC-0.20.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Chicago CubsNLC-0.60.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.60.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.20.167950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Diego PadresNLW-1.20.082800.00.082.080.082-8082-80>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%29.7%7.9%1.6%0.0%+7.0%+8.8%
2Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-1.60.177850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.9%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.80.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-6.9%-3.6%
4Los Angeles DodgersNLW-1.20.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.4%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-1.00.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Boston Red SoxALE1.30.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%50.0%50.0%>99.9%51.2%25.7%15.5%+15.0%+49.9%+24.6%
2New York YankeesALE1.40.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%50.0%50.0%>99.9%52.2%26.9%16.7%0.0%+34.4%+57.0%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.90.080820.00.080.082.080-8280-82<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%
4Baltimore OriolesALE-0.40.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-0.20.167950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Chicago White SoxALC0.60.099630.00.099.063.099-6399-63>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%44.8%19.2%10.3%0.0%+1.2%+1.5%
2Cleveland IndiansALC1.40.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-15.0%-85.5%-49.0%
3Minnesota TwinsALC0.10.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
4Detroit TigersALC-0.20.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.00.0561060.00.056.0106.056-10656-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Los Angeles Angels of AnaheimALW1.20.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%51.7%28.1%17.7%0.0%+8.3%+39.3%
2Oakland AthleticsALW2.0-0.188740.00.088.074.088-7488-74<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-8.3%-72.8%
3Texas RangersALW0.20.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Seattle MarinersALW0.30.069930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%