MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2002-09-29. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.9-0.1101590.00.0101.059.0101-59101-59>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%51.1%27.7%12.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Montreal ExposNLE0.20.183790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.00.080810.00.080.081.080-8180-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Florida MarlinsNLE-0.70.079830.00.079.083.079-8379-83<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5New York MetsNLE-0.30.175860.00.075.086.075-8675-86<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.8-0.197650.00.097.065.097-6597-65>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%52.0%25.2%10.7%0.0%0.0%+21.3%
2Houston AstrosNLC0.10.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-22.5%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.90.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.60.072890.00.072.089.072-8972-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Chicago CubsNLC-0.20.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersNLC-1.40.1561060.00.056.0106.056-10656-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.7-0.198640.00.098.064.098-6498-64>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%48.0%21.8%8.7%0.0%+0.0%+0.1%
2San Francisco GiantsNLW0.9-0.195660.00.095.066.095-6695-66>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%48.9%25.3%11.4%0.0%+12.6%+56.0%
3Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.40.092700.00.092.070.092-7092-70<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-12.6%-54.7%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-1.10.073890.00.073.089.073-8973-89<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Diego PadresNLW-0.70.066960.00.066.096.066-9666-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.80.0103580.00.0103.058.0103-58103-58>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%41.8%17.1%8.2%0.0%0.0%+0.5%
2Boston Red SoxALE0.90.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-18.2%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.30.078840.00.078.084.078-8478-84<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Baltimore OriolesALE-0.60.067950.00.067.095.067-9567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-1.20.0551060.00.055.0106.055-10655-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC0.20.094670.00.094.067.094-6794-67>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%30.3%11.2%4.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Chicago White SoxALC0.30.081810.00.081.081.081-8181-81<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Cleveland IndiansALC-0.40.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.80.0621000.00.062.0100.062-10062-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALC-1.60.1551060.00.055.0106.055-10655-106<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW1.7-0.1103590.00.0103.059.0103-59103-59>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%69.7%42.1%26.8%0.0%0.0%+6.8%
2Anaheim AngelsALW1.4-0.199630.00.099.063.099-6399-63>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%58.2%29.6%17.3%0.0%+0.1%+32.0%
3Seattle MarinersALW0.60.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-21.2%
4Texas RangersALW0.30.072900.00.072.090.072-9072-90<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%