MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2002-09-29. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL | Atlanta Braves | Arizona Diamondbacks | St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | |
| AL | New York Yankees | Oakland Athletics | Minnesota Twins | Anaheim Angels |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.9 | -0.1 | 101 | 59 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 101.0 | 59.0 | 101-59 | 101-59 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 51.1% | 27.7% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Montreal Expos | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.1 | 83 | 79 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 83-79 | 83-79 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 81.0 | 80-81 | 80-81 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Florida Marlins | NL | E | -0.7 | 0.0 | 79 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 83.0 | 79-83 | 79-83 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | New York Mets | NL | E | -0.3 | 0.1 | 75 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 86.0 | 75-86 | 75-86 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.8 | -0.1 | 97 | 65 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 97.0 | 65.0 | 97-65 | 97-65 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 52.0% | 25.2% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +21.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Houston Astros | NL | C | 0.1 | 0.0 | 84 | 78 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 78.0 | 84-78 | 84-78 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -22.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.9 | 0.0 | 78 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 78-84 | 78-84 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.6 | 0.0 | 72 | 89 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 89.0 | 72-89 | 72-89 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | -0.2 | 0.0 | 67 | 95 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 95.0 | 67-95 | 67-95 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | -1.4 | 0.1 | 56 | 106 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56.0 | 106.0 | 56-106 | 56-106 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | 0.7 | -0.1 | 98 | 64 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 98-64 | 98-64 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 48.0% | 21.8% | 8.7% | 0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | ||||||
| 2 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.9 | -0.1 | 95 | 66 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 66.0 | 95-66 | 95-66 | >99.9% | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | 48.9% | 25.3% | 11.4% | 0.0% | +12.6% | +56.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 92 | 70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 92.0 | 70.0 | 92-70 | 92-70 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -12.6% | -54.7% | ||||||
| 4 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.1 | 0.0 | 73 | 89 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 89.0 | 73-89 | 73-89 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | -0.7 | 0.0 | 66 | 96 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 66.0 | 96.0 | 66-96 | 66-96 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.8 | 0.0 | 103 | 58 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 103.0 | 58.0 | 103-58 | 103-58 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 41.8% | 17.1% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.9 | 0.0 | 93 | 69 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 93-69 | 93-69 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -18.2% | ||||||
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.0 | 78 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 78-84 | 78-84 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | -0.6 | 0.0 | 67 | 95 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 95.0 | 67-95 | 67-95 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | AL | E | -1.2 | 0.0 | 55 | 106 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 106.0 | 55-106 | 55-106 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.2 | 0.0 | 94 | 67 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 67.0 | 94-67 | 94-67 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 30.3% | 11.2% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | 0.3 | 0.0 | 81 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 81.0 | 81-81 | 81-81 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Cleveland Indians | AL | C | -0.4 | 0.0 | 74 | 88 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 88.0 | 74-88 | 74-88 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -0.8 | 0.0 | 62 | 100 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.0 | 100.0 | 62-100 | 62-100 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -1.6 | 0.1 | 55 | 106 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 106.0 | 55-106 | 55-106 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | 1.7 | -0.1 | 103 | 59 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 103.0 | 59.0 | 103-59 | 103-59 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 69.7% | 42.1% | 26.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +6.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Anaheim Angels | AL | W | 1.4 | -0.1 | 99 | 63 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 99.0 | 63.0 | 99-63 | 99-63 | >99.9% | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | 58.2% | 29.6% | 17.3% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +32.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.6 | 0.0 | 93 | 69 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 93-69 | 93-69 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -21.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | 0.3 | 0.0 | 72 | 90 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 72-90 | 72-90 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||


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